Whitney Tilson provides update on IOC short
Here's an interesting post courtesy of Market Folly on Whitney Tilson's T2 partners' short position in InterOil Corp (IOC).Update on InterOil Short Position
"We added to our bearish bet (yesterday), as InterOil reported Q2 earnings yesterday that reinforced our investment thesis. The earnings and EBITDA (driven by the refinery operation) are irrelevant for a company that has a $2.9 BILLION (not a typo) market cap; what really matters if whether there is, in fact, the Sierra Madre of oil and gas in the areas being explored by InterOil and, if so, whether they have the cash to find it, develop it commercially, etc.
Re: the former, there continues to be no proven or even probable reserves – just more hype and gibberish like this from the earnings release:
The Antelope 2 horizontal well confirmed a higher condensate-to-natural gas ratio of 20.4 barrels per million cubic feet of natural gas, 27% higher than observed at the top of the reservoir. The horizontal well also demonstrated dolomitization and higher porosity deeper in the reservoir than previously modeled.
And re. the cash, this company is going to hit the wall soon. Over the past four quarters, net income is -$1.3 million and free cash flow is -$181.9 million (cash from operating activities minus “expenditure on oil and gas properties” and “expenditure on plant and equipment, net of disposals”, broken down as follows:
Q3 09: -$48.6 million
Q4 09: -$40.7 million
Q1 10: -$28.5 million
Q2 10: -$64.1 million
TOTAL: $181.9 million)
So with no profits to fund such massively negative cash flows, how is InterOil doing it? Answer #1: Burning through cash (unrestricted cash has declined from $96.4 million a year ago to $31.7 million today). Answer #2: Taking on debt (the working capital facility – short-term debt – is up from $4.0 million a year ago to $57.7 million today, partly offset by a $9 million decline in a secured loan). Answer #3: Issuing stock and conversion of debt ($12.8 million over the past 12 months), resulting in the diluted share count rising 16.1%. Answer #4: Misc. other stuff (“Proceeds from IPI cash calls” ($15.2M in the first two quarters of 2010), “Proceeds received on sale of exploration assets” ($13.9M in Q1), and “Proceeds from Petromin for Elk and Antelope field development” ($5M over the past 12 months).
To summarize, InterOil has only $31.7 million in unrestricted cash as of June 30th and they’re burning an average of $45.5 million of cash each quarter. No wonder the company entered a short-term $25 million credit facility last week on distressed terms: 10% interest (in this environment!), secured by a 2.5% stake in InterOil’s Elk and Antelope fields. Note that the provider of financing was a very dicey outfit, Clarion Finanz and known stock promoter Carlo Civelli – see this post."
I am adding a short of IOC to my CAPS portfolio today at $64.27.