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gman444 (28.90)

Who are the real "contarian indicators?"

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May 20, 2009 – Comments (6)

It seems everyone is a contrarian these days.  I've seen the term thrown about in the general media, and all through CAPS blogs, used in wildly differing ways.  Because there seem to be more bears than bulls on CAPS, the bullish bloggers say that running against all the gloom-and-doom makes them the true contrarians.  Bearish bloggers say the ridiculous assertions of the PPT make them the genuine article.   I've seen a top-rated blogger refer to another top-rated blogger as a "contrarian indicator."  Heck, I even did that myself (though the spirit was tongue-in-cheek) a few months back, although as I recall you could hardly call the other guy top-rated, scorewise anyway.  I think the misuse of the term reflects what happens when a once useful descriptor becomes a cliche.

Yesterday, I had the opportunity to take a cab ride.  The driver, a regular guy, was good-natured and quite chatty.  He told me about the drug habit he beat, and about his second wife, who got all his money; we touched on a wide range of topics.  He told me that "they are saying on the news" that the recession is over, and the markets are "gonna be fine now."  I'll take my cabbie as my true, personal, contrarian indicator.  

Oh, and he also said that "the war is over--all the troops are gonna be comin' home now."  Guess which way I think that one is going? 

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 20, 2009 at 7:14 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

gman, Good post man. Yeah, the opinions here on Caps are very divided. But the problem is that the Caps user is smarter than the average investor. We all read too much and have a more informed opinion, and so using the blogs here don't serve well as a 'contrarian indicator'. But little tidbits like the one you describe above are perfect. This is the takeaway from the 'Average Joe' (and I do not mean this pejoratively at all), and the general investing populace is the last to know when a rally is up. That doesn't necessarily mean the rally is up (I have my own opinions on the matter) but I agree, it is a good 'contrarian indicator' :) Thanks for the post!.

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#2) On May 20, 2009 at 3:17 PM, gman444 (28.90) wrote:

Thanks, Binve.  I think it's good for us all to remember that CAPS members are probably not representative of the general population, and that much of the information we share here is just not known to the majority of the "regular people" out there.  And I agree, "regular people" or any such term is not perjorative. 

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#3) On May 21, 2009 at 12:20 AM, walt373 (99.82) wrote:

My own beliefs are usually a pretty good contrarian indicator...

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#4) On May 21, 2009 at 2:08 AM, gman444 (28.90) wrote:

LOL Waltman.....you should be a great stockpicker then--just go against your own beliefs when you pick...

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#5) On May 22, 2009 at 8:01 PM, GraemesPSP (99.60) wrote:

Walt, if you think your a contrarian indicator, then I'll take that as a contrarian sign and make the same picks as you.  I think...

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#6) On May 23, 2009 at 7:31 PM, selfdestruct2 (41.84) wrote:

gman, I bet lots of investors consider that approach when we're losing money. I know I have.

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