Why 30-50% Unemployment Coming
September 30, 2008
– Comments (13)
When I was telling you guys six months ago we were facing something unprecedented....few understood or believed. I doubt there are many in the country who have spent as much time analyzing and/or undertand this issue as Alstry. Once our nation realizes how dependant our economy became on easy credit...and how it infected practically every aspect of commerce..then and only then will they realize how dire the outcome will be once credit is removed and we are forced by the bankers to pay back the debt as they receive government handouts.
From peak new house construction is DOWN over 66% from over 1.5 million units to under 500K. Those employed in real estate sales and the mortgage industry are also down 50% or more. After the fourth quarter of this year, commercial construction is going to come to a grinding halt from peak.
Just in the Real Estate Sector.....we are likely going to see at least 50% umemployment....a sector that employs millions and millions of people.
This is spilling over into finance. Banks, Investment Firms, Brokerages, ect.....are going bankrupt and laying off hundreds of thousands of workers. Lending is grinding to a trickle...not because there is no money to lend....but most of the lending to unqualified borrowers is no longer being issued. Toxic lending made up most of the lending in recent years and was the driving force of our economic growth.
Auto Sales are already down about 40% from peak. Dealers are shutting down accross the country and parts suppliers are contracting as well. This has had a profound impact on trucking and warehousing.
Airlines are shutting down and/or dramtically cutting flights this Fall. My estimation is capacity will be down at least 30% and maybe more. This will have a strong effect on hotels, tourism, and business entertainment revenues.
As a result of the above, cities and state tax revenues will contract. We are already starting to see significant revenue shortfalls and layoffs beginning. Expect local governments to cut budgets at least by 1/3 as property tax, income tax, and sales tax revenues evaporate.
The above will have a significant impact on retail and retail related businesses. We have already seen some slowing. My guess is that it is only beginning.
If you take just the above you can see where this is going. It is not pretty. Unless we restructure, reorganize and recapitalize right now......we are going to face issues that we have never seen in our nation.
The politicians and bankers are either ignorant or lying to you. In the end....a few will own America and we and our children will be subject to servitude for the rest of our lives.
Look around and wake up....America is shutting down. A few of us can see what is coming. Unless we return the the fundemental constitutional principals that our forefathers created....ours will become a nation owned by the few controlling the many. Our democratic republic will be gone and we will end up in an ism...you pick...facism, socialism, communism....I am not sure which one...but it will be one for sure when the many start to revolt because they don't have enough food on the table to feed their families.
Without a doubt this is the most dangerous time in American History....not because of an enemy without...but because of an enemy within. If you don't see the problems yet...I promise you will soon if we continue down the same path...
This is not a Democratic or Republican Issue....both sides are missing the mark.....although not perfect...Ron Paul is as close as you get on the economic issues.
We must stop the madness of subsidizing the few at the expense of the many.
Some thought I was kidding when I was warning this was the worst financial crisis since The Great Depression.....now get ready for an unemployment rate never seen in The Great Depression. Back then our manufacturing base was growing and we were innovating with little debt in our society. Now, we are leveraged to the gills and have shipped much productivity overseas and kept the service businesses that was dependant on easy credit. Now that easy credit is gone....so will the those businesses and the jobs.
Start being nicer to your neighbors...we will need each other as things deteriorate. Hopefully that will be a positive by product of the coming distress. I can think of others....but that is a good start.
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