Why can so few see realilty about 30-50% Unemployment?
Every time I ariticulate my forecast for 30-50% unemployment, I am amazed how so many otherwise intelligent people can't see what seems so clear to me. Especially that U6 unemployment rate is now at 16.2% and everyone says unemployment is going much higher.
Credit Card defaults are about to cross the 10% threshold. Foreclosures are at record highs and growing. Commercial vacancies are exploding and revenues are evaporating as fewer and fewer are bringing in enough revenues to cover taxes, interest and insurance.
We are at 16.2% and we are about to gut 1/2 to 2/3 of the auto industry. We are looking at hundreds of thousands of jobs just there between dealers and manufacturers and suppliers not to mention tens of thousands of support workers.
We are likely to close over 100,000 additional retailers in 2009. Already more have closed in 2009 than all of 2008.....and we know a bunch closed in 2008.
Hotel workers are getting released, so are airline workers, so are technology workers....AND NOW HEALTH CARE WORKERS.
The next big shoe to drop will be state and local government workers. LA ALONE is releasing about 5000 teachers.
As an academic exercise.....what percentage do you CAPS players think U6 unemployment will reach.