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alstry (35.89)

Why Does Alstry Blog So Much?

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August 26, 2009 – Comments (19)

I know for many of you, Alstry's blogging seemed repetitive.  Trust me I know.  Although the theme was obnoxiously consistent...the facts in almost every blog was very different.

It was Alstry's theme that America is shutting through job losses and and deterioration in business conditions and failures.  In almost every blog, not only did Alstry provide a new fact, most of the time the appropriate link was also inserted.

It is one thing if layoffs occur in one state or one geographical area. but when they occur in practically every state...something very different.  Same with government revenue contractions and consequent layoffs.  If it is one city, or county or state or region it is not as severe as if it is practically every municipality and state.

We see the same with revenue evaporation in business.  If it was just housing or autos or transporation or manufacturing or chemicals or hotels or commercial real estate or technology it would be one thing, something very different if all of the above.

It order to provide an accurate perspective of such wide economic destruction, it takes a lot of facts.  And a lot of facts have been provided with almost 2000 blogs and thousands of more in comments with links.

If you go back an look, you will note that very few links were ever repeated...very few.  Sometimes one was taken from a comment and elevated to a blog because I thought it was important.

As we approach 9.09, most of you will recognize that America is shutting down and our economic outlook is getting worse, not better.

With millions upon millions of layoffs and wage cuts ahead of us, a Fed who refuses to alleviate the burden of debt on our society(and actually increasing the burden by tightening credit and raising interest rates) while bailing out its bankers by giving them free money and allowing them to loan that same money back to tax payers at much higher rates, and rewarding failure by letting those that issue debt profit from the demise of that debt through credit default swaps(could you imagine if your surgeon could take out a massive life insurance policy on you just before surgery? most would be able to plan their funeral going into the ER).

For three years, I have watched business after business in America destroy their balance sheet by making insane moves...moves not too different than Detroit, a bankrupt city wanting to borrow $500 million for new schools.  Banks wrote the debt because they made a ton of money profiting from the demise of the business and loan through swaps.  In effect, banks were incentivized to write bad loans, destroy the target of the debt,  and in the process millions of legitimate companies were put out of business as well trying to compete with a swap induced money losing business.

The more important question is why was this allowed...why were swaps permitted.  They are not very complicated to understand when you really think about it...they are simply insurance policies on debt without the normal safeguards in place in other areas of insurance.  Why would the FED allow the underwriter of the debt profit from the destruction of the debt...seems like a conflict of interest doesn't it? 

After a lot of blogging and a lot of linking the crash is upon us.  The only thing that hasn't crashed is the stock market....yet.   With many Americans leveraged on their homes, millions have lost ALL of their equity and and more in the last few years.  Same with commerical real estate.  Our cities and states are cutting at unprecdented levels.  The post office is slowing so much that its survival is in jeopordy.  Almost every industry that is not the recipient of government spending is suffering right now.  The only thing left is the stock market even though the underlying debt coverage is deteriorating.

An interesting time as we head into 9.09....and you have the facts to support it.

 

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 26, 2009 at 9:05 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

I always thought it was because behind *Alstry* is a band of Nigerian scam artists that like to fill their free time blogging between phishing expeditions.

I'm kidding! Nigerian scam artists don't have that kind of time on their hands with all that money rolling in.

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#2) On August 26, 2009 at 9:07 AM, alstry (35.89) wrote:

Going forward, you will also learn one thing.  The only thing that matters in investing is whether your government is solvent.  In the past, Americans have never concerned themselves with this issue as we have historically been the greatest capitialist power in the world.

It is sorta like running a business on a beach in Indonesia...you are trying to grow and outperform your competitors as you grow the value of your business.  But if a tsunami is coming, the only thing that matter is the tsunami.

Up until very recently, our private capitalist economy supported our government and its spending.  Due to the Fed induced zombulation policies supported by credit default swaps, our private economy is evaporating while at the same time our government is growing.

Industry after industry has reported revenue declines of 20% and more while government has grown by over 50% in the past few years.

Starting at a base line of 100....if both started at the same point the private economy would be a relative 80 and government would be at 150.

It appears this trend is continuing as government keeps stimulating and private business keeps shrinking.

Think about the consequences of that as we go forward.  Think about the control government will have over its citizens?

It appears we are just about there as you are being told everything is getting better.  If this trend continues, pretty soon it won't matter and niether will your investments.

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#3) On August 26, 2009 at 9:23 AM, alstry (35.89) wrote:

The New American Business Model...Reward Shrinking

Shares of Williams-Sonoma soared 14% in pre-market trading. The share price almost doubled this year.

Revenue fell 18% to $672 million as same-store sales declined 15%.

Under Chief Executive Howard Lester, Williams-Sonoma lowered merchandise inventory by 21%, cut 1.2 million square feet of distribution capacity and 80,000 square feet of leased office space to trim costs and bolster the bottom line in light of declining sales. The company said it also plans to increase projected permanent store closings by the end of the year to 16 from nine.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/williams-sonoma-posts-surprise-profit-shares-gain-2009-08-26

When you can book profits by buying back your distressed debt at a discount and fund your pension with over valued shares of stock.....WHO REALLY CARES IF YOU SELL ANYTHING?

As we keep cutting....soon there will be nothing left to cut.

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#4) On August 26, 2009 at 10:26 AM, TMFJake (50.62) wrote:

I hear you on WSM.  This earnings pop makes no sense to me.  IMO, aggressive cost control measures, at this point, should do nothing more than prevent further price erosion and not bubble inflate share price.

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#5) On August 26, 2009 at 10:27 AM, jesusfreakinco (28.98) wrote:

The only thing that matters in investing is whether your government is solvent.

Alstry - do you in 9.09 expect this to be questioned?

JFC

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#6) On August 26, 2009 at 10:33 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Hmmm.... well, this blog makes no sense.  Alstry[nomics] blogs for the sake of supporting an obnoxiously consistent theme.

That is *what* Alstry[nomics] does.

But what drives an entity to blog soooooo much? What are the intentions? Why Does Alstry Blog So Much?  And why will Alstry[nomics] mock and ridicule me for seeking the details of the very same question Alstry[nomics] put forth?

Folks, if you haven't figured it out yet, we are already living in some of the worst times this nation has seen.  There is not much anyone can do except wait this storm out.  If anyone tells you otherwise, I recommend you find out exactly what they propose you do.  You'll find that the answer is as useless as the mainstream media.  Which, oh by the way, is where Alstry[nomics] get the majority of its so called facts.

 

 

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#7) On August 26, 2009 at 10:38 AM, alstry (35.89) wrote:

Absolutely!!!

Further, as we move through September and approach October.....you will start to see, as the distress continues to rise, more and more Americans question capitalism.

When over 150,000,000 million Americans are already dependent on the government for income....you are really not that far from a totally government dependent economy.

It was not hard to foresee.  When you infect the PRIVATE economy with a debt level that mathematically can't be paid back, and financially incentivize the bankers and CEO's to do it, it will not take much time for the private economy to implode.

We are now here.  New Home Sales down 90% in dollar value.  CRE imploded.  The only way we can sell cars is pay people to buy them. and on and on.

The private economy can no longer support government spending and government has become the economy.

Where this goes is anyone's guess...but I am pretty sure you are going to start seeing some amazing issues raised as we enter into September.

Glen Beck is a good beginning where the controversy is being raised.....strange for a person I never really respected at the outset.

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#8) On August 26, 2009 at 10:59 AM, BradAllenton (31.61) wrote:

My guess is because Alstry is scared and unprepared. Poorly positioned for any dooms day scenario and freaking out in his mind until it comes out as a blathering repetative rant. That's just my guess.

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#9) On August 26, 2009 at 11:55 AM, alstry (35.89) wrote:

Brad.

Alstry is not really freaking ....things are getting much clearer.....as we approach 0.09.  The facts are the facts and there really is not much we can do about it......as many choose to ignore the facts.

Over half of all Americans are dependent on reckless government spending to survive and now over half of all Americans likely to contract H1N1?

Brings a new twist to Half and Half as we head into September.....now it depdends on which half you are sitting with?

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#10) On August 26, 2009 at 12:03 PM, booyahh (< 20) wrote:

I got swine flu a few weeks ago, really not a big deal. Cough and cold, some fever - nothing that Tylenol couldn't fix. It's all hype. That said, I've sold my stocks, and will rebuy on the dip.

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#11) On August 26, 2009 at 12:04 PM, JerseyShoreGirl (< 20) wrote:

National Debt Clock (real time)

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

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#12) On August 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM, dargus (82.44) wrote:

Alstry has a pretty good thing going here. If he's right, he looks like a genius, and if he's wrong, no one will remember him. Win-win in the 15 minutes of fame world.

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#13) On August 26, 2009 at 12:26 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Brad,

LOL!!  Thanks so much for actually taking a shot at answering the question this blog is asking.

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#14) On August 26, 2009 at 12:28 PM, alstry (35.89) wrote:

dar,

If you consider this fame....you have no clue my friend;)

As far as 9.09......it is already here.....you just don't know it yet.

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#15) On August 26, 2009 at 12:31 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

dargus,

The sad part is those that follow/worship this entity will sink with it.  Keeping an open mind is key in these times, and Alstry[nomics] will not allow that (it's Alstry's way or no way, much the same as cult leaders operate)

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#16) On August 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM, weg915 (< 20) wrote:

jddubya,

You know it's not true.  People read Alstry's blog for lots of different reasons.  Look at yourself.  There is no cult, only interested readers.  Alstry presents his view and supports it.  That's it. 

He may be wrong or he may be right or he may be crazy.  Time will tell.  

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#17) On August 26, 2009 at 12:49 PM, alstry (35.89) wrote:

Actually jd my most faithful reader if you judge by the number of comments he makes on my blog.

Some people are just addicted to the facts.

He doesn't have to read....he choose to and he reads much more than most.

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#18) On August 26, 2009 at 1:03 PM, VintageCat (< 20) wrote:

Weg915:  Agreed.  I don't play CAPs, I'm not in the market, I don't know enough about it to be proficient nor care enough to learn it.  I've made my money in real estate, dodging the majority of the excesses of crass materialism in the last 3 decades and through hard work.  

I read most of Alstry's stuff because as a former small business owner that decided to kill (close) my business before it got killed (bottom line costs rising, earnings flat or falling) I see the USA's financial situation that he sees but he's a much more entertaining and macro oriented read than most of the "stuff it in a mattress" or dry breakdowns of the minutia of various safe investment approaches for the fiscally conservative.  It's just that simple.   

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#19) On August 26, 2009 at 1:06 PM, dargus (82.44) wrote:

Famous enough to set up your own website and sell advice. Who would want any more fame than that anyway?

I too have been waiting for the correction, but total collapse, not likely.

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