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Why I Don't Bet $$ on My Strongly Held Pessimisms...



June 12, 2008 – Comments (6)

Cuz stuff like this can happen.

Retail Sales Rise Much More Than Expected- Reuters

The Commerce Department reported an increase last month that was twice as much as expected by Wall Street economists polled before the report. Taking out the higher prices consumers paid for gasoline, sales still rose by a strong 0.8 percent, the biggest increase in a year.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 12, 2008 at 12:28 PM, PhillyGator (< 20) wrote:

The government checks retail sales subsidy will be a blip on the radar a year from now. My 2 cents. I think your pessimism is well founded.

That said, hope this jump starts the economy. Only jerks bet (in real life) on Economic disasters and I don't want to be a jerk.

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#2) On June 12, 2008 at 12:35 PM, JustWokeUp (89.83) wrote:

That news has not been making any rainbow in my broken, torn, bleeding portfolio... So I actually think that *I* should have bet $$ on your strongly held pessimism.

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#3) On June 12, 2008 at 12:37 PM, FleaBagger (27.45) wrote:

Not jerks, Philly Gator. People who care more about the welfare of their family than about what people think about them.

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#4) On June 12, 2008 at 1:12 PM, TDRH (97.12) wrote:

     I am with Philligator in that I hope this jumpstarts the economy, but I am afraid this is the last gasp over an overleveredged consumer.   

     The important retail season is Christmas, with the cost of home heating oil expected to  double in some areas, I imagine sweaters and long johns will be flying off the shelves, but the balance of discretionary spending will plummet.  

     That said I am thinking about buying SCC if it reaches the lower $80's.   Never bet short  before, but I believe real pain is ahead.   Hate to be a jerk.

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#5) On June 12, 2008 at 1:58 PM, leohaas (29.83) wrote:

Or, you could use today's optimism to establish a short or put option on retail (RTH for instance)!

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#6) On June 12, 2008 at 2:21 PM, mandrake66 (67.48) wrote:

I find myself in the unusual and uncomfortable position of betting a decent bit of real-life money on a rebound in financials (UYG). My gut is telling me we're on the cusp of another strong rally. My brain is yelling things at me that wouldn't get past the language filter here. It's starting to make the rounds that BAC and GS will be cutting their dividends sharply soon. I will need some aspirin going into earnings season the next few weeks.

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