Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

angusthermopylae (43.36)

Why I "Rec"

Recs

40

January 09, 2009 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: CHK , BHY , RHT

Not a financial discussion, but I think it's sort of relevant...

For me, one of the most instructional features of CAPS is the ability to read, comment, and post blogs.  Yes, you can go out and find news articles, press releases, and government reports.  Yes, there are certainly similar features on Yahoo Finance and others.  And you can certainly do your own independent research, keeping your own opinion and notes.

But CAPS is, to me, a place where those who are interested in finance but don't have a job in finance can learn, grow, and join in the debate over "what's all mean, when you get right down to it?"  (with due reverence to Terry Pratchett.)

RECommending

What makes CAPS valuable is that somewhere out there is someone who cares enough about jobs reports, currency fluctuations, biotechnology, and even chicken egg production numbers to analyse the information and post their thoughts.  This is important, because raw numbers mean nothing, and it's difficult for anyone, expert or layman, to wrap his or her skull around the history, context, and implications of every industry and every move in the market.

Because these analyses are valuable, I make liberal use of my ability to hit the Recommend button.  Basically, I use the following criteria:

1)  The post is insightful, meaning that it digs below the surface to draw out the implications of an event or bit of new information.

2)  The poster uses the information to support a view in a meaningful way.  Maybe the information isn't directly relevant on the surface, but the blogger says, "Hey, this means that X will happen if you take it in conjuction with Y and Z that I pointed out six months ago."

and/or 3)  The post causes a long discussion over the merits or flaws in an argument.  The comments for or against go on and on, with multiple views presented and lots of data or first-hand observation added to the mix.

Please note that in none of my general criteria did I ever say that I had to agree with any of the posts or commentary.  To me, the argument itself has value, and I can either make up my mind how I feel or decide that I don't have an opinion because I don't know enough (yet) or can't wrap my brain housing group around the ideas presented.

Also note that the poster's rank is not a factor, either.  One of the sentiments on CAPS is that a lot of very smart people, defined by position, money, or power, have royally screwed up the economy because they wouldn't listen to people who take the time to really know the subject.  Look at my favorites, and you can see I try to pick members from all across the scoring spectrum.

Ok, so why talk about it?

The reason I bring it up is because of a disturbing trend I have seen in several other sites I browse and (normally) lurk.  Digg and DailyKos, for example, have comment wars over users who are perceived to abuse their ranking or who get "unfair" advantage because of their popularity.  Today, for example, there's a digg post/article that even tries to pull YouTube into the fray.

DailyKos, in my humble opinion, has, at the moment, degenerated into an armed camp, split between multiple sides and reduced to name-calling.  Some of this is because of the Israeli Gaza actions.  I, however, tend to think that they are also a victim of their own success; DailyKos is a Democratic (the party, not the government) site that has "succeeded" in their goal of a majority in the government and are now finding that their own internal differences are hard to overcome.

What this has to do with CAPS

Recently, a lot of name calling and "accusations" have been directed on various articles in CAPS.  Good discussions on economics, markets, and financials have been overcome with accusations of multiple accounts, some weird form of abusing the scoring system, and "yeah, but you don't know anything about subject X because you're an idiot."

To be fair, a lot of CAPS articles are supposed to be sarcastic and cynical, or even (jokingly) accusatory.  I'm all for that.  Sometimes, the way to get your point across is to stir the pot as hard as you can.

But the success of CAPS (and it's value) depends on its members.  My own (cynical) view of humanity is a quote from an old Heinlein book:  "If you put too many monkeys in a cage, they will start killing each other.  Man is the only animal to do this intentionally."  The other commentary sites I mention are possibly having this problem.

Times are hard, people get defensive, and it's easy to say "you don't know what your talking about."  That's okay, as long as we, as a group, don't forget that there may be a nugget of truth or insight (or even a pony!) beneath that pile of manure.

And that's my (inflation-adjusted) 2 cents...

(in case you're wondering, the tickers are the stocks that I follow and use this site's analysis to work with...nothing to do (directly) with the article)

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 09, 2009 at 1:57 PM, blake303 (29.98) wrote:

Well said. That deserves a rec.

Report this comment
#2) On January 09, 2009 at 2:34 PM, outoffocus (26.88) wrote:

I agree with you. I hope CAPS doesnt turn into a popularity contests.  I have noticed that certain bloggers seem to get recs just based on the fact they are highly rated CAPS players while other bloggers with less stellar scores find that their commentary falls by the wayside.  Personally I dont think that is fair.  Sometimes the bloggers with the lower scores may be posting questions that more experienced CAPS players may be able to answer.  But that CAPS player does not get their answer because the experienced players aren't looking at the blog.

Also, if a blog generates a discussion to the point where are 10+ comments (especially when those comments are insightful and not from the original blogger) then blog should get recs just for generating the discussion.

But thats just my 2 cents.

Report this comment
#3) On January 09, 2009 at 2:43 PM, ThoughtfulFool (< 20) wrote:

Kudos to you for thoughtful :-) comments.

Report this comment
#4) On January 09, 2009 at 2:50 PM, BradAllenton (32.92) wrote:

outoffocus- you are dead on. Many names get recs even when the blog they post adds nothing or is just the same crap they post over and over. I also think way too much yank is put on the caps score. If you invested the same way you get a 90+ rating in real $ you would be broke. Check out some of the people who rank 90+ they sell winners and hold losers. Most of them have losers that are  triple didgits.

Report this comment
#5) On January 09, 2009 at 2:56 PM, goldminingXpert (99.73) wrote:

I click on everyone's blog once or twice but I only consistently read those of players rated over 99... there's too many people on here like (to name one particularly egregious example) Terrieconomics who repeatedly blog absolutely ludicrious predictions (SIRI to go up 50x among others) and then are like "wait and you'll see" when confronted with counterarguments. A Player that gets up to a 99 rating has a good head for sure, even if I find his or her blog to be dead wrong, I know the writer has some good reason for writing it. However a player rated <20 who says the S&P is going to 1250 this year won't get a 2nd thought from me, they got a <20 rating by being consistently wrong, and thus their opinion is of little import.

Report this comment
#6) On January 09, 2009 at 3:22 PM, outoffocus (26.88) wrote:

However a player rated <20 who says the S&P is going to 1250 this year won't get a 2nd thought from me, they got a <20 rating by being consistently wrong, and thus their opinion is of little import.

goldminingXpert

Considering the events of the last 6 months, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with your analysis. I think you analysis is short sighted. The reasons for players getting a <20 rating depends on their investing style and (in some cases luck).   I've personally seen players go from <20 to >20 and back to <20 in a matter of days.

First, take into account the market volatility of the last 6 months.  If you started your account say in September this year and pick stocks (especially outperforms) based on sound fundamental analysis, you still would have ended up with <20. 

Second, I've observed that alot of the top players have been playing CAPS for over 1 year.  Which means they've had the opportunity to bank points over an extended period of time.  That puts the new players at a disadvantage to the more experienced players.

Third, CAPS ratings are skewed on a curve.  A player can make 7 picks, all of the picks are losers, and still have a rating >20. That does not make them a skilled CAPS player.  It just shows how badly the majority of the players are doing. Not to mention that if you look at the "No picks in 90 days charm" you'll see a good 80% of CAPS players arent even active.  That is certainly going to throw off the CAPS rating system.

Speaking from personal experience, I got <20 due to ignorance of the CAPS scoring system. It took me to learn the hard way how to obtain a high score in this game.  Honestly if I started a new account I would be an allstar within days.  I choose not to because I like the challenge of moving from the bottom to the top.

Report this comment
#7) On January 09, 2009 at 3:22 PM, BradAllenton (32.92) wrote:

goldminingX- I can understand where you are coming from, but I still wouldn't equate a good caps score with a good trader. Caps is a game and it can be gamed. The people who are good at it know how to play. My point is, 99% isn't = to smart. Just look at the losers in a 99+ active picks. That strategy would get you poor in real life. Hold my losers till they suck less than the S&P? Not a great plan.  

Report this comment
#8) On January 09, 2009 at 3:51 PM, angusthermopylae (43.36) wrote:

Good points on the "score vs. expertise" debate.  However, I would point out that the blog portion can be independent of score.

Just because a guy's picks go up or down (and drag his score with it) doesn't me he doesn't have something to say--or (to be crude) spark off a great discussion with a "bad" or false theory.

An example:  alstry vs. floridabuilder.  Love them or hate them, you have to admit that their posts provide analysis, theory, prediction, and a raging debate over the state of a particular section of the market.

FB started getting "attacked" by various critics and "defended" by his faithful followers; in the end, he gave up.  I was never that knowledgeable about the housing market, and I didn't always agree with his conclusions, but what he said and the ideas he presented opened up a whole new area for me.

Alstry gets attacked and defended the same way.  Maybe he likes it, maybe not.  But his voluminous postings shine a light on some of the darker aspects of everything that is going on...and people respond.  Good or bad, his arguments challenge the assumptions about "how it all works."

I'd hate to lose that.

Sometimes insightfulness, analysis, and scoring come together--dwot is a great example.

But zzlangerhans looks at biotech, which I don't have time for digging into the primary data, and russiangambit lived through a whole country's collapse.  He doesn't blog, but his commentary is always useful for comparison.

Gemini846 asks some pretty thoughtful questions.  And there are lots of others.

I'm not saying there is not an issue with the front runners--maybe, maybe not (I personally don't have any complaints.)  I'm saying that the examples provided by other, similar sites show how it can all go horribly wrong, and a community-driven discussion is too important.

[/ranting and shaking finger]

Report this comment
#9) On January 09, 2009 at 5:11 PM, TMFDeej (99.36) wrote:

Amen angusthermopylae.  I completely agree.  The bickering and namecalling in posts is stupid and pointless.  It only serves to hurt CAPS.  A site like this is only as good as the quality of its posts and contributors.  Great blog.

Deej

Report this comment
#10) On January 09, 2009 at 5:22 PM, EnigmaDude (97.72) wrote:

Do you concur? I concur. Why yes, I do indeed concur.

Report this comment
#11) On January 09, 2009 at 5:45 PM, goldminingXpert (99.73) wrote:

most of the people you pointed out there angus are 99+. Certainly Zzlangerhans (one of my favs), Alstry, and Floridabuilder all are. There are too many blogs here for me to read all of them. Thus, I mostly read the 98+ ones.

Report this comment
#12) On January 09, 2009 at 6:20 PM, blake303 (29.98) wrote:

I would like to have the ability to give recs for responses rather than to the author of a blog. I tend to rec blogs in which a response corrects misinformation in the blog entry so that more people will read it and hopefully not spread the same misinformation. Unfortunately, this unfairly gives the blogger the recs and possibly undue credibility. I have seen this suggestion posed many times over the past year. Are you listing Motley Fool?

I also agree with the popularity contest argument. Which of these posts submitted today do you believe deserves more recs?

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=128122&t=02001245751683612226

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=128057&t=01004034443672390362

(I'm not singling out dwot. She deserves her status as one of the most recommended bloggers. This is merely illustrates my point)

Report this comment
#13) On January 09, 2009 at 6:42 PM, kdakota630 (99.92) wrote:

When it comes to blog reading I mostly follow goldminingXpert's strategy with 2 exceptions:

1) if someone's heading is provocative or interesting enough for me to read (which is why I've never read anything by the HypnoToad)

2) if the blogger has already proved themselves to be interesting and informative despite a low CAPS rating.  TMFSinchy is a good example of that.

Otherwise I simply don't have the time to read them all, except on weekends when I'm often killing time.

As for rec'ing a blog, if I think it's something others will benefit from, even if it didn't benefit me, I'll rec it. That includes if the blog itself wasn't particularly interesting, but the discussion that followed it was.  

Report this comment
#14) On January 09, 2009 at 8:31 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

CAPS has tought me two important things.  !)   It's found me some good pics.  2)  I get market consensus.  The second is the most important.

Report this comment
#15) On January 09, 2009 at 8:55 PM, dquihote (95.85) wrote:

Excellent discussion. As a fairly new member to CAPS, I have not commented or rec'ed on much. I have read - without looking at scores the headlines that catch my attention. Having said that, I have made the decision to start rec-ing more based on what has been said here. See - this blog makes a difference!

 As for CAPS scores not following investing strategies, it seems to depend on the person. I've looked at some people who have everything as underperform - and I can't see shorting everything as a valid investment stratagy. However, if I see someone who (like me) has picked mostly or all "overperform" and has a high score I will value what they say because they are picking winners - successfully.

Report this comment
#16) On January 09, 2009 at 11:34 PM, Option1307 (30.71) wrote:

Good thoughts angus...

I think you have some valid points here and raise a few interesting questions. I completely agree that some posts seem to get recs because of the authors "score". Several times I have read a top post by a high rated member, only to be seriously disappointed in the content. This to me though, is a completely naturally occurance. Obviously the higher rated players will be preceived as having more relevant and insightful posts and/or comments. Whether this is true or not is not the point, its the fact that they appear to be the "smartest" and thus will more likely be followed. And there is no fault for people following their natural tendencies.

My Caps reading strategy is rather simple. There are lots and lots of posts, way too many to read and they are usually all posted at certain hours of the day. Therefore I narrow it down as follows:

I'll read any post that has an interesting title. Yes, titles are important, sorry but its true. Whether it is something catchy, I agree with, or I think is absolutely false, I'll read it if it draws me in.

Clearly I have my favorites here on Caps, so I usually read there thoughts. And to be honest. I like all ranges of players.

I try and read a few posts from every palyer I come across, regardless of score. After several of their posts, if I enjoy their commentary, agree with them, or think they are way off base, I'll continue reading them. (you gotta know your enemies dumb thoughts, afterall.) I realize that low scoring Caps players can be equally as informative in terms of their posts/comments.

 Yes I like the favs, but there are several lesser know players that have great insight too. Caps is simply a game, pure and simple. There is a lot of great investing ideas and strategies to be learned here. However, it also involves a lot of time, effort, luck, and the length of membership. Therefore, having a high score or a low score does not entirely or accurately describe your "investment smarts". I think many people overlook this detail. A high Caps score is indicative of a person who is good at playing the Caps game. It is a game afterall, nothing more. While you can be a great "invester/trader" and have a high Caps score, the opposite is not necessarily true.

See this is a good example of my strategy. I was like who the sh*t is this person writting a post, never heard of him/her. Read your post, liked it, I'll be back...

Keep on posting Angus...

Report this comment
#17) On January 19, 2009 at 10:34 AM, jmt587 (99.85) wrote:

"who the sh*t" is a funny phrase.

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement