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Lulupoopsalot (61.98)

Why the week of Sep. 24th makes me nervous



September 24, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: XHB , M , CAT

We have some big numbers in the economic world coming out this week.

Sep. 25th we have consumer confidence coming out.  The market is expecting a 63 but I'd be very cautious if we dissapoint.  However, if we beat that number then watch out in the retail sector for some very bullish action.  M and ROST should cover a wide band of income classes.

Sep. 26th we have new home sales.  The street is expecting 380k in new home sales.  I would be very bullish on housing if this number beats.  Look at XHB for a broad market play in the housing sector.

Sep 26th we also have crude inventories.  Energy has been volatile lately and a miss in either direction will move the market.  I have been looking very closely at PBR which is trading below book value.

Sep 27th is a huge day.  We have three major data points being released on this date.  They are Initial Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and GDP.  This is a scary day.

The market is looking for initial claims in the 379K range.  This number is released and updated weekly and therefore not a huge market mover.  I'm not expecting a big move this week, however, it wouldn't surprise me to start seeing some of this seasonal hiring starting.

Durable goods orders are expected to be -5.0%.  This is a huge change from the August estimate which was 2.5% and the actual number which was 4.2%.  If that -5.0% really does materialize then we have some downside in capital goods, industrials, etc.

Finally, GDP is forecasted to be 1.7%.  We all know that if GDP misses then we've got a leg down.  But what if Durable Goods and GDP both beat?  Well it's off to the races then for another month I think.  Look at CAT, CMI, and DE for some plays in that area if both those numbers beat.

Sep. 28th closes out this active week.  There we have Personal Income where the market is projecting a .2% increase.  Only a large miss on this number will have an effect on the market.

Last but not least on Sep. 28th is the Chicago PMI which is expected to be 52.9.  This is important because it tracks the contraction and expansion of the manufacturing sector.  A beat on this number would be a very bullish signal confirming the purchases of industrials and capital goods.  A miss could spell disaster especially if many of the other data points miss.

All dates and data are from Yahoo Finance. 

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