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Will history one day view these as infamous quotes and articles???

Recs

68

June 06, 2010 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: IN , FAM , Y

As the 'correction' gathers speed and intensity, I can't help but wonder how some of these quotes and/or articles will be viewed 5, 10, 25, 50, 100...years from now: 

Joke's On the Bears: Dow Hits New '10 Highs (4/1/2010)

America is Back! The Comeback Country:How America pulled itself back from the brink—and why it's destined to stay on top. 4/8/2010

Three Big Reasons to Keep Being Bullish (4/9/2010)

In This Market, Everything Is Bullish (4/15/2010)

Missed the Rally? There's Still Time, But Don't Wait Too Long (4/23/2010)

Stocks: 8 weeks up and counting (4/25/2010)

Art Cashin: Markets Are 'Nowhere Near a Top' (4/26/2010) 

So Bullish on Stocks that We Feel Guilty (4/27/2010) 

Don't fear the VIX (5/6/2010)

Evidence Remains Bullish (5/15/2010)

Could these articles one day be mocked like the following 'classic' quotes from the late 1920's/early 1930's:

"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929

"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929

"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

17. "... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
 

 

While I might be wrong and the market could certainly rebound in the next few weeks and months (we're bound to get a relief rally at some point, aren't we?), I fear that we're headed down the same path that we took in the Great Depression. If so, I am certain that the linked articles will be referenced well into the future.

 

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 06, 2010 at 11:00 PM, goalie37 (91.56) wrote:

Your blog obviously took quite a bit of time to compile.  That's what I love about CAPS.  +1 rec.

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#2) On June 06, 2010 at 11:06 PM, JGus (28.67) wrote:

goalie37 

Thanks! It took me about an hour or so to pull together. I bookmarked two of the above articles in late April/early May and revisited them recently. I thought it would be interesting to see what kind of other bullish articles I could find around that same time. There were far more than I wanted to take the time to link, these were just some of the best.

I agree that CAPS is a great place to hear from lots of really bright people and investors!

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#3) On June 06, 2010 at 11:27 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I would think whatever bullish calls were made in 2007 would be a lot worse.

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#4) On June 06, 2010 at 11:35 PM, JGus (28.67) wrote:

bullishbabo

I tend to agree with you, but there have already been lots of blogs written about those quotes over the last few years. I was trying to be original :)

The best comparison for these quotes/articles would be the quotes in 1930-31 after the 60% rebound but before the 80% loss over the next few years.

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#5) On June 07, 2010 at 4:37 AM, ozzfan1317 (81.18) wrote:

I don't feel its quite the same even if we have a double dip the downside from here is way less than the upside the time to raise cash was in 2007 when everyone thought stocks would go up forever. Those are usually the best times to pare back exposure and raise cash as a drop is almost always imminent.

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#6) On June 07, 2010 at 9:24 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

JGus, that is an awesome collection of hubris and nobody learning their lessons. Thanks for compiling and posting!!..

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#7) On June 07, 2010 at 9:44 AM, cthomas1017 (86.74) wrote:

Fantastic Post!  +10 Recs!

But you forgot two quotes...

"Oh shi...!."- John Maynard Keynes, October 24, 1929 

"I predicted this would happen."- John Maynard Keynes, October 26, 1929 

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#8) On June 07, 2010 at 9:58 AM, outoffocus (22.80) wrote:

More importantly, if we do experience a crash, will the people who CORRECTLY called it be properly recognized?  I could name about 10 people both TMF writers and well respected CAPS members who have been warning of a double dip since last year.

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#9) On June 07, 2010 at 12:03 PM, Teacherman1 (58.11) wrote:

We are in for a correction, and the market could go anywhere, but I believe a comparison to the 29 crash is a bit of a stretch.

Don't use margin, and don't personally know anyone who does, but a whole lot of people did before the 29 crash.

Nothing goes up forever, but nothing goes down forever either.

You can buy low ( and lower during a big correction if you have the guts to) and wait patiently, or you can sell and watch from the sidelines.

Each has to make his or her own decision based on their viewpoint and character.

Good quotes. A lot of interesting books written during that time and well worth reading. 

Good luck with whatever course you choose to follow. 

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#10) On June 07, 2010 at 2:54 PM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

That last quote is stunning...  Shows what a (poor) student of history I am... They actually barred people from opening safe-deposit boxes without a government agent present?

 

I always thought the popularity of safe-deposit boxes was an anachronism owed to their comparative stability (e.g. what you put in you would get out) compared to banks in the great depression.  Makes me wonder why my grandparents would be such a fan of them to this day given that they would have witnessed this.

 

Nevertheless let me go on record that I've been bearish for longer than its been cool.

 

 

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#11) On June 07, 2010 at 3:43 PM, 4everlost (29.36) wrote:

You da man for this piece of work!  Do you remember how bullish some people were when the NASDAQ hit 5000 for the first time?  I'm sharing this with all (both) of my friends.

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#12) On June 07, 2010 at 4:08 PM, JGus (28.67) wrote:

4everlost

Thanks! It was a labor of bearish love :) I do remember when NAZ hit 5000 - I graduated from college in Dec. '99 and, with my first full-time job, began investing in Jan. '00. I remember being amazed as it seemed like stocks only went up...until they didn't. Fortunately, I didn't have much to lose at that point.

I'm sharing this with all (both) of my friends.

LOL! I'll be your friend if you'll be mine ;)

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