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alstry (< 20)

Will The FED Provide False GDP Data????



July 28, 2009 – Comments (14)

This out from Hertz this evening; 

Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research estimated a quarterly profit of 3 cents a share. Revenue fell to $1.75 billion from $2.28 billion last year. Hertz forecast revenue of $6.7 billion to $7 billion for the year, compared with analyst estimates of $7.16 billion.

We know Airline, Hotel, and Auto Rental Revenues are down about 20% year over year.

We know New Home Construction is down 80% from peak.

We know Auto Sales are down about 50%.

We know Microsoft, Intel and Dell revenues are down collectively about 20%....other tech companies more.

U.S. Steel revenues down over 50%....Same with Paccar and Catepiller down over 40%.

We know retail sales are down about 10% year over year.

We know exports are down over 25% year over year.

We know tax receipts are now down over 20% with conditions deteriorating in April and May.

We know about 50% of Architects are unemployed.

We know Law Firms across the nation are shrinking or shutting down.

We know commercial contstruction is coming to a grinding halt.

We know lending is contracting.

We know State and Local governments are cutting way back......

We know We know We know................................

You think the Fed is going to report GDP is down only 1 or 2% on Friday??????


14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 28, 2009 at 5:08 PM, ReadEmAnWeep (73.46) wrote:

Yes, they probably lie to us all the time.

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#2) On July 28, 2009 at 5:11 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

A little more confirmation from an important transport:

Norfolk Southern Q2 rev $1.86 bln vs $2.77 bln

Wow...that one was even worse than Alstry thought.

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#3) On July 28, 2009 at 5:16 PM, QualityPicks (26.39) wrote:

I actually believe they will report a positive GDP number with a straight face :) After all of the amount of government intervention, I wouldn't be surprised.

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#4) On July 28, 2009 at 5:22 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Too bad non of that intervention showed up in either the G, D or P of many of the companies reporting.

It semms toys are getting hit as well....

(MarketWatch)-- Toymaker Jakks Pacific  late Tuesday swung to a second-quarter net loss and forecast soft sales for its core product lines, including Hannah Montana, Pokemon and Cabbage Patch Kids. Jakks said it plans to cut costs. Such moves may result in job cuts and office space consolidation.

Looks like more losing jobs and rising commercial vacancies......yup, without a doubt, we are shutting down.

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#5) On July 28, 2009 at 5:44 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

So, it's a verifiable fact that we would see a massive decline in GDP if it weren't for increased goverment spending, correct?...20%+ maybe?  However, this government spending isn't being distributed through private companies...where is it going?  Is it all welfare?...or bank bailout money that isn't really working to help the economy?

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#6) On July 28, 2009 at 5:48 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


This will have a HUGE impact on GDP going forward.....

But even as he signed the plan, Schwarzenegger warned that the state's troubles are not over. Finance officials already are predicting future deficits, and the governor said he was ready, "if our revenues drop further, to make the necessary cuts and live within our means."

The extra cuts he made today -- $489 million -- took nearly $80 million that pays for workers who help abused and neglected children; $50 million from Healthy Families, which provides healthcare to children in low-income families; $50 million from services for developmentally delayed children under age 3; $16 million from domestic-violence programs; $6.3 million from services for the elderly; and $6.2 million from parks. That reduction could result in the closure of 100, rather than 50, state parks.


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#7) On July 28, 2009 at 6:09 PM, robstuck (< 20) wrote:



this post is dramatized, desensitized trash.


give us some substance, and then we can have an educated discussion. Do this and you'll be able to convince more people to support your ideas which i suppose is your goal. 

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#8) On July 28, 2009 at 6:14 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

IMHO it is naive to trust (as accurate) statistics/numbers that are printed in the paper, reported by any agency (including company financial reports), reported on the news or on the web.


Because numbers are inherently fun and easy to play with.  Since the introduction of numbers, weights and balances and measurements, numbers have been the playthings of accountants, vendors, casinos, lawyers, manufacturers, governments, etc.

Especially when gathering data from massive and diverse networks, the logistics get pretty sketchy and accuracy is very difficult to "prove."

Break it all down and we know this:  Is there product on your stores' shelves?  Are the movie theatre lobbies full, empty or luke warm?  Are the shopping mall and restaurants in your city bustling or floundering?

We can best judge reality by observing and asking.  I ask store clerks and managers, I observe parking lots, I talk with family and friends and watch for other signs that can offer up clues.  This is my reality.

That which is reported on the news, by the government, written in blogs, etc. is all very speculative, based on information that is based on other information that is based on other information.  I prefer to hear it from the "horse."

I don't know where Alstry gets his information, but I'll bet it's based on information he read somewhere with a healthy dose of speculation and hypothesis thrown in there.

What information can you believe?  The information that you know first-hand.  That's what you can beleive absolutely.  Anything someone else told you is probably less than 100% accurate.

All the rest is guessing, hoping and speculating.   

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#9) On July 28, 2009 at 6:40 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


What numbers would you like verified?....everything I posted has either been linked by me in an earlier blog or is readily available publicly.

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#10) On July 28, 2009 at 6:41 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:


I agree that you can't trust most statistics that you read. However, most of the revenue declines that Alstry is discussing are being reported by the companies themselves.  Where I live, the local economy is still relatively strong...that's an observable fact...however, this doesn't mean that there aren't large and small businesses going out of business right now.  It doesn't mean that tax revenues aren't down 20% nationwide.  It doesn't mean that some areas aren't seeing malls close, etc...  Based on verifiable fact, I am sure that you will be able to conclude that any GDP figure presented this week will be a lie.

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#11) On July 28, 2009 at 6:54 PM, robstuck (< 20) wrote:

just for future reference i for one would very much appreciate you citing sources. this enables me to learn from your knowledge and to further use this information in future discussions. as opposed to me making a statement or wanting to make a statement though lacking the proper evidence. 



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#12) On July 28, 2009 at 7:04 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Go back and read my past ten blogs, most of the above is cited.

Whenever I put something in italics, it is cut and pasted usually with the source identified.  If not, simply, copy it and google it and you should get there.

Alstry is good, but not perfect.  Always verify everthing you read....especially from a blogger who blogs as much as I do.

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#13) On July 28, 2009 at 8:15 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

My point is that all these numbers that are being reported are in constant flux and are being compiled across the world from so many sources that not even the companies themselves have a firm grasp on them.  That's why companies go bankrupt.

The numbers companies report are alway scewed to the companies' advantage, no matter how poor they may be.  This is why these companies pay millions to have accounting firms like Price Coopers Waterhouse do their needs to look as realistic as possible, but always in favor of the company's objectives. 

It's creative financing and accounting to the upside and to the downside.

It's similar to Obama telling us that there will be no new taxes for those making 250K or less.  Yet, there are new taxes being imposed everywhere:  tobacco, tummytuck, loans to big banks which will be paid back by the taxpayers, etc.

There are these hidden, masked, undercurrent numbers that are always running that will make it impossible to put your finger on any verifiable number at any given time.  This is why the data presented by companies in their quarterlies are not to be trusted.  In fact, I would wager that most companies are sandbagging number and estimates to provde leeway for "growth" in their next quarter reports. 

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#14) On July 28, 2009 at 9:31 PM, EcoFreako (< 20) wrote:

Here's one of Alstry's 909 diversions to take our eyes away from the economy while the Fed pulls a fast one:

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