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ifool100 (66.02)

Wish I would have bought P at $10 - it's so wonderfully, disruptive!

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January 06, 2014 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: TSLA , DDD , P

First mover, disruptive.  I think that's often the key.  And I think it's a good idea to avoid editorials from the shorts.  Pandora (P) changes the way we listen to music, 3D systems (DDD, SSYS, VJET, XONE) change the way we manufacture, Solar City (SCTY) changes the way we consume energy, Amazon (AMZN) changes the way we buy stuff, Netfix (NFLX) changes the way we watch videos. SBUX changes the way we drink coffee, Facebook (FB) changes the way we relate, Tesla (TSLA) changes the way we get around.  Anyone else?

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 06, 2014 at 8:48 PM, awallejr (83.78) wrote:

Well if you get in early and go for the ride it could be profitable.  But just remember many of these kind of plays tend to crash and burn if they don't deliver.

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#2) On January 06, 2014 at 9:25 PM, jiltin (25.19) wrote:

GOOG - the way searching,  AAPL - Major changer for tablet and touch-phone, EBAY-paypal - auction and payment

 

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#3) On January 06, 2014 at 10:09 PM, awallejr (83.78) wrote:

Well of the bunch I do find 3D printing the most interesting. Music, social chat can be fickle.  Energy, cheap always wins in the end.

Two plays I really like are XRX and GE for 3D. Both are CHEAP and pay dividends.  XRX with their chiplets can have a big impact over time.  They blew it with Jobs and Gates when they gave their ideas away, but hopefully they won't with 3D printing.

GE can use 3D to its advantage with manufacturing.

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#4) On January 07, 2014 at 3:26 PM, blake303 (29.20) wrote:

 

Profit and valuation are more often “the key”. P's current valuation is unjustified because it consistently fails to deliver profit. AOL and MySpace also changed the way we relate. How are those disruptive, first movers holding up? Ignore editorials from the shorts at your own peril.  Reality will get priced in whether you agree with the logic or not.

 

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#5) On January 08, 2014 at 3:48 PM, ifool100 (66.02) wrote:

P has gone from $10 to $30 in less than a year.  Your cash has tripled, justified or not.  I think it's important to have an exit strategy. Disruptive companies are famous for being unjustified because it's really difficult to value something that's never been done.  David Gardner recently had a hundred bagger with AMZN. He bought when it was losing money - for the unjustifiable price of $32, before splits of course.

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#6) On January 09, 2014 at 12:30 PM, blake303 (29.20) wrote:

Good for David Gardner, but cherry picking his winners is not an indication that P is capable of generating anything similar to AMZN's performance merely because you believe it is disruptive. I said the current price is not justified and made no mention of the run from $10 to $30. P's growth has been impressive, but with slowing growth and competitive pressures I believe it is incredibly overvalued and would start employing a stop loss as an exit strategy. 

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#7) On January 09, 2014 at 6:16 PM, ifool100 (66.02) wrote:

I know, right!  Yep, I agree.  (Of course experts were saying that 6 months ago too.)  I think you have to believe in what you buy and watch the 30 day, MACD and Stochastic closely.  Problem with a stop loss is it's easy to get stopped out, then they bounce back up. Don't really believe in them.  I think the market is a bit too easly played by the big boys for trailing stops anymore.

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#8) On January 10, 2014 at 12:37 PM, blake303 (29.20) wrote:

I typically use a 20% stop loss, which usually will not be triggered without horrible news assuming you aren't talking about a high beta/penny/small cap/commodity stock.  A stock can bounce back after a stop loss is triggered, but I prefer to protect gains vs owning a stock that fails to rebound.

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