Wong, MAC, and those incredibly stylish posts the TA guys make...
I read the paper on Moving Average Crossover by Wong this evening. I must be honest and say that I read it nearly drunk with fatigue, as for 2 nights in a row the smoke detectors in my place have been going wild every 15 minutes, which makes it a bit of a challenge to get some rest. It just occured to me to disconnect them all, which can be taken as proof of some kind of significant mental illness, I'm getting that check tomorrow.
But anyway, back to Wong, I am impressed. His presentation is statistical in nature, clinical, no claims of clairvoiance or anything silly, just some historical facts. Assuming his calculations are correct, it looks like we may have a time tested proven winning tool to go along with the similarly cold, clinical p/e, p/b, p/s, p/yield presentation of Dreman and others.
I like cold and clinical...
Thanks to Tasty or Vibe or whichever one of you folks posted that in response to a post of mine in the "ego" thread.
And, lest I forget, I would like to say that I'm envious of the incredibly stylish posts youguys make. I can't even embed a youtube video, and the last time i tried i dropped my laptop and broke the modem. nice work.
To clarify what we are looking at here, we're looking at a 5 day centered moving average, which is basically just a smoothed curve of a stock or an index itself, and comparing that with a moving average thats offset as is the traditional rpesentation. When the stock or index breaks north of the moving average, thats a bullish sign.
When it breaks south of the moving average, thats a bearish sign.
Does one typically weight these crossovers according to direction? Like the S&P breaking the 200 day MA when the 200DMA is falling is less impressive than if it breaks north of it when the 200 day MA is rising?
Or take a stock I have a small position in - LVS - its vastly off its early May highs and trending down. Yesterday it went south through its 50 day MA and its always been below its 200 day MA in 2009.
We'd take it as bullish for LVS if it bumped up past its 200 day MA?? Do we take it as bearish that it is now below its 50day ma?
Whats the #1, Dreman-style (cold, clinical, statistics oriented) book on this stuff? And whast the best website or software to use to tinker around with it?