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reddingrunner (92.03)

Worst 48 hrs in CAPS history?



August 16, 2007 – Comments (1)

I joined CAPS in April, climbed steadily up to a score of about 97; hung around there all summer until two days ago and then, in the last 48 hours dropped to a score of 7. Since late July my point total has dropped by about 700 points vs the S&P.

Ouch.  I wonder if I just set some kind of CAPS record?!

Two possibilities:  My strategy is sound and if I just sit tight, everything will be fine in awhile.  Second:  My strategy is wrong for these times and I need to adapt.

Fortunately CAPS serves as my watch list:  it's been frustrating to see stocks that I like, but hadn't bought yet soar.  Now I can wait until the bleeding stops and pick up a few at these fire sale prices (Since June I've been holding more cash in my real portfolio than at any time in the past five years).

I thought I was moderately diversified but all my sector bets have been big losers the last two days: financials, materials, energy, emerging markets.

For those of you watching me sink, I have no confidence at all in my portfolio over the short term.   And I don't know how long the short term will last.  Eventually these stocks will bounce back and soar.  At any given moment I'd say the odds of them heading rapidly up or rapidly down in the next few weeks are about 50/50.

In real life I won't be buying anything for the next 8 weeks. 

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 21, 2007 at 12:21 PM, folgore (57.92) wrote:

In the words of the great Jim Cramer -- who occasionally is right -- "Are you diversified?"

I haven't really analyzed your CAPS picks, but the most logical explanation is that your picks are concentrated in sectors that have been especially hard hit.  (Hopefully, you don't find that the sectors are doing okay and it's your individual picks that are doing bad! :) )

My chart makes for an interesting contrast with yours.  My chart plods along, rises very slowly.  Yours went through the roof, then went through the floor!  Perhaps it's my conservative dividend stocks that decrease volatility.  (Then again, I only have something like 16 picks so far!)

It might be time-consuming, but maybe you should go through the scores of your picks to see which ones brought you down the most and see if there is any connecting theme/sector that can provide you useful feedback.

The concept of sitting tight on your stocks in hard times is a sound one, provided the stocks you've chosen are sound as well.

Good luck!

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