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Wow, a lot is already priced in.



December 05, 2008 – Comments (5)

Interesting, very interesting.  I thought that quite a bit of pain was already priced in at at this level, but I am very surprised at how in stride Mr. Market took this morning's huge surprise in the November jobs report number (533,000 jobs lost and a massive upward revision for Oct. versus an estimate of 333,000).  Impressive.


5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 05, 2008 at 4:21 PM, Varchild2008 (84.37) wrote:

I estimated 12 million jobs would be lost in November and everyone based their bull rally decision today off my estimates.

Wall Streets all shouted in unison:

"WOW jobs numbers are far far better than Varchild's forecast! Buy Buy Buy!"

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#2) On December 05, 2008 at 4:48 PM, johnw106 (< 20) wrote:

I have my suspect. The "quanitive easing" scheme Bernake spoke of. Some one or some thing is buying on bad news. There is no logical reason for the market to go up today. Flat or a loss I could understand. But a 300 point gain? After falling 200 points?
We are not in Kansas anymore Dorothy.

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#3) On December 05, 2008 at 9:23 PM, johnw106 (< 20) wrote:

Then again. If Mr Market looks ahead four to six months then we are loking at a bottom now and a economic recovery starting in June/July...and Mr Market priced in massive job losses in October.

Mr Market has been refusing to drop below 800 S+P all through November.

So do you listen to Mr Market or do you beleive in rumors and speculations about a plunge protection team?

Do you continue to cower in fear behind mothers skirt hugging your teddy bear or venture outside to play with the new kids?

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#4) On December 08, 2008 at 7:43 PM, zygnoda (< 20) wrote:

Mr. Market is drunk.  Please ignore his frenetic movements.

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#5) On December 10, 2008 at 9:24 PM, dexion10 (26.89) wrote:

the market rallied on the last 6 jobs number this is just more of the same.


additoinally the stock market has never bottomed while the rate of unemployment has increased... not in the last 20 years... so this move is a head fake

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