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goldminingXpert (29.50)

Wow, I Go On Vacation and all Hell Breaks Loose...

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33

May 27, 2009 – Comments (30)

Multiple trolls saying that I was wrong, I've thrown in the towel and so on. Of course I haven't. Things have played out largely as expected in my last post. I expected one more push up... which we got. It was on weak volume and the bulls have failed to confirm it today. As I type, the market is sinking to new lows on the day as the bond market continues to disintegrate.

Net result of the bond market collapse--mortgage rates are rising at increasing speed.   We all know the end result of that... The market should break under 875 later this week or next week at the latest as the threat of an exponentially rising yield curve crushes the banks.

Chart the goryness:

And a quick look at the S&P 500.

052709spx

30 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 27, 2009 at 2:05 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Don't say you weren't warned.

By the way, this is D27V17 of The Market Is About To Plunge series.

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#2) On May 27, 2009 at 2:08 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Actually, this should scare you as well

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#3) On May 27, 2009 at 2:08 PM, millionby24 (< 20) wrote:

good job, u predicted it a month before it happened~~~

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#4) On May 27, 2009 at 2:17 PM, GenericMike (< 20) wrote:

I'd say that's a pretty good prediction, then. I was off by 3 months. Some professional analysts are off by years.

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#5) On May 27, 2009 at 2:21 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

At the very peak, you could have gotten 50 S&P points from where this series started if you stayed long. The money to be made in the bear market rally was made before this series started (666 to 880 is big gains) 880 to 930 in a choppy fashion with sharp pullbacks isn't real profitable as it was chop and would hit your stops repeatedly. Now, the rally is fading most likely for good and we're 15 points on the S&P below where I gave trading advice to get short.

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#6) On May 27, 2009 at 2:34 PM, blake303 (29.26) wrote:

What is the y-axis on the FNMA chart? Apologies in advance for my ignorance.

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#7) On May 27, 2009 at 2:35 PM, motleyanimal (58.16) wrote:

 RAISE YOUR PLUNGERS, BROTHERS AND SISTERS.

THE TIME IS NOW TO UNPLUG THE CAPITALIST CRAPPER!

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#8) On May 27, 2009 at 2:36 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Blake: this table sums up all you need to know. From Erate.com, I bring you the 1-day change in mortgage rates:

mortgage rates

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#9) On May 27, 2009 at 2:38 PM, Entrepreneur58 (36.53) wrote:

One month return on long dated bonds is negative 13 percent.  This can't last for long without serious problems for both the economy and asset prices.  Our Fed Chairman will figure this out one of these days, probably after the market goes into another coma.

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#10) On May 27, 2009 at 2:42 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.30) wrote:

30 Year Fixed  5.00%  4.99%

15 Year Fixed 4.69%  4.63%

1 Year ARM 4.60%  4.63%

30 Year Fixed Jumbo 6.32%  6.27%

5/1 ARM 4.62%  4.56%

3/1 ARM 4.72%  4.67%

Today's rates are 1st last weeks rates are 2nd.

source bankrate.com

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#11) On May 27, 2009 at 2:42 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

bankrate's haven't updated yet. Good try, buddy.

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#12) On May 27, 2009 at 2:43 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

By the way, for those of you who don't know mortgages--when there is rapid movement in the market, they don't update their rates (price sheets) until the move stabilizes which is why a lot of places have yet to update.

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#13) On May 27, 2009 at 2:45 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.30) wrote:

Yes they have just pulled it from a local source who sent me there. Who also works for illustrated properties.

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#14) On May 27, 2009 at 2:47 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.30) wrote:

Not to mention you can also buy points and get a lower rate at or near 4.5% still.

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#15) On May 27, 2009 at 2:48 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

That's it, I've wasted enough time with you. Must remember, don't respond to trolls...

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#16) On May 27, 2009 at 2:50 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.30) wrote:

Then you shouldnt keep posting bs.

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#17) On May 27, 2009 at 3:00 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Troll--you're using old data. All this is going down today. Please quit posting on my threads and quit lying about me.

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#18) On May 27, 2009 at 3:03 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.30) wrote:

Facts you hate being used against you!!!!

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#19) On May 27, 2009 at 3:13 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Facts you hate being used against you!!!!

And here come the EXCLAMATION POINTS!!!!!! I'M RIGHT CAUSE I CAN USE CAPS AND EXCLAMATION POINTS EVEN THOUGH MY DATA IS SO OLD IT'S GETTING MOLDY! LOOK AT ME, I'M A TROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#20) On May 27, 2009 at 3:38 PM, tdonb (< 20) wrote:

GMX,

Even if DeerHunter is correct, which I doubt, don't let him get to you. Others here appreciate your insights and the information you share even though we don't shout it out all the time.  

Thanks,

Tommy

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#21) On May 27, 2009 at 4:14 PM, huddaman (99.23) wrote:

GMX,

 

Don't waste your time responding to DeerHunter73. If someone chooses to believe him and not you, its their loss.

 

Deerhunter73 has proven his wiseguyness (I know its not a word but you know what I mean) by illustrating that getting a 4.5% mortgage by using points is same thing as getting a 4.5% mortgage without points. If i was allowed to use the word idiot in reference to him, I would use it here.

 

 

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#22) On May 27, 2009 at 4:58 PM, ttboydxb (28.79) wrote:

GMX,  Deerhunter just makes himself look more and more desperate with each additional comment.  He must be constantly hitting the refresh button to see if you've replied to him, so just leave him hangin....

 

Your posts are thought and discussion provoking, although because of guys like deerhunter I'm reading the discussions less and less.  Deerhunter how about writing about the economy on your posts, and if anyone would like to discuss that with you,  they'll post there.

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#23) On May 27, 2009 at 6:10 PM, RookieQB (28.96) wrote:

I'm putting my bearhat on and grabbing my jar of honey...

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#24) On May 27, 2009 at 6:13 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

GMX,  Deerhunter just makes himself look more and more desperate with each additional comment.  He must be constantly hitting the refresh button to see if you've replied to him, so just leave him hangin...

Fair enough.

although because of guys like deerhunter I'm reading the discussions less and less.

Sorry about that. Usually the comments here are pretty interesting.

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#25) On May 27, 2009 at 6:19 PM, PrestonCheek (31.70) wrote:

GMX, I do not reply very often but I will take the time to please ask you not to get caught up in that waste of time above.

I too like to hear your take on things as I have been following you for quite awhile, these moves up have been very good opportunities to add to your positions. There is no way I would long the market with even Deerhunters' money, even if it does not crash it's still a crappy market to be taking chances.

Keep up the good work, by the way where was the vacation and how is school going.

Preston

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#26) On May 27, 2009 at 7:09 PM, ciahomia (< 20) wrote:

GMX,

I am very agree to your comment

"880 to 930 in a choppy trade" it is very hard to trade in the 880-930 at least for me.

great post, 1 rec for you, should I can give another rec, I'll do it..

oh Btw, keep posting and ignore those that don't like your blogs... a lots here are really appreciate of what you did.

 

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#27) On May 27, 2009 at 7:51 PM, threepaweddog (28.66) wrote:

GMX,

I saw the same feed on eRate that you posted, quoting a 28% increase, but it isn't correct.  Take a look at some of the other data points they have.  The 10Y Treasury, S&P500, and the 3/1 ARM are all off.  If it is the same way tomorrow, then I'll be worried.  Until then, I think it is safe to assume a 6% pop in yield on the 10Y isn't going to translate into a 28% pop on the 30Y-fixed, especially with BB buying 100's of billions of agency debt.

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#28) On May 27, 2009 at 9:02 PM, columbia1 wrote:

countywide is at 5.75% on a 30, tonight

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#29) On May 27, 2009 at 9:15 PM, goldminingXpert (29.50) wrote:

Yeah, the first piece of data I got was wrong, but rates still rocketed higher today. Thanks for the info Columbia.

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#30) On May 29, 2009 at 4:39 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.30) wrote:

So much for 875. S&P crosses and closes above 200 day moving avg. 3 months of steady rising wheres the plunge?

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