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kirkydu (93.64)

Wow, Russia and the U.S. are arguing. Go figure.

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August 22, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: RJA , SKF , TWM

The Russia and U.S. thing with Georgia and Iran as the pawns isn't really the topic I'm going to address here, if you want to learn about that head over to Stratfor and George Friedman who has helped me miss a lot of international pain and make money without ever offering financial advice.  What I came here to say is "here comes the pain."  Oh, you thought the last year was painful.  Ha, get ready for all that and a bag of chips in the next FOUR MONTHS.  If we get a rally, well, consider it a gift to escape what's coming.  We are about to get CAPITULATION baby!  Just in time for my trip to Vegas. 

For the balance of the year, I've prepared for another 10-30% drop pretty much across the board. I have SKF & TWM as the hedges on my long portfolio, with about a quarter cash and some senior debt.  We all know why the pain is coming, well at least those of us who actually understand economics and finance, so I'm not gonig to drone on about that stuff again.  Simple explanation is that necessities are getting more expensive, purchasing power is going down, unemployment is beginning a bad spiral to 10% (or more), the banks are broke so we can't borrow our way out and the government is hiding a lot of fools, errrr, idiots who really should get the Marie Antoinette treatment- well, at least in theory. 

What I'm interested in right now is what to buy when the markets bottom likely a little later this year.  Well, we can see on my Caps list some of the long stocks I'm learning about or outright waiting to buy (I'll add a few more shortly and replace ones I've discovered I wouldn't own at any price).  Hope you have your list of 50 or so stocks to get to know and love at some point.  You'll want to own a dozen of them soon.  Use some good ROE, ROA, PEG and other magical screens to narrow it down.  You'll be able to get high quality stuff on the cheap, don't bother with speculative unknowns, this is a once in a decade opportunity (well twice this decade) to dump that stuff.  You might also want a nice Proshares ultra etf or two.  Oh, and RJA, it's going to go through the roof soon and you ought to buy it now, it already bottomed.   Mmmmm vegitables, eat 'em and it'll make you healthy.  No rickets here.

As always, if you didn't look at my profile, MY CAPS is a watchlist, I'm not really doing it for score.  I add the negative ETFs when I'm bearish, remove them when I'm bullish (and add some long etfs to boot).  If I were being 100% serious here, I'd own about 6 stocks, a couple ultra bear ETFs, ag and senior secured notes (this is what I own in real life).

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 22, 2008 at 12:23 AM, LordZ wrote:

A real argument between Russia and the US would at best only involve 2 hits. USA hiting Russia with its full military might and Russia hiting the mat faster than any Don King shady paid off fighter. Heck in the invasion of Georgia, the Russian commander actually got ambushed and injured by a small resistance force, sophisticated military Russia planes actually were shot down and destroyed by the  Georgians. Make no mistake Putin is an evil muppet master who really needs to face a sophisticated true military power and not some small isolated mountain locked small neighbor to bully.

 

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#2) On August 23, 2008 at 9:58 PM, russiangambit (29.26) wrote:

> Make no mistake Putin is an evil muppet master who really needs to face a sophisticated true military power and not some small isolated mountain locked small neighbor to bully.

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And Dick Cheney is Mother Teresa. Give me a break.

I take offense when people talk about russians as if they are second sort. Russia has a thousand years of history and culture. And our understanding of the world is far more sophisticated, not all black and white like in the US. It just shows your ignorance when you talk like this.

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