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Varchild2008 (84.01)

Yet another ATVI Article *Bleh*



July 08, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

I smell $11.45 as a support level.  I'm moving my "You should buy" target on ATVI at $11.45 or below.

Hey... My highest price point is $11.48.  So this isn't in contradiction to what I have been doing with my own real money.

I stand by my THESIS from yesterday.... Activision's business may contract eventually if not already due to the economy...sales declines? revenue declines?  doesn't matter what contracts....Something can surely contract to even the world's greatest video game publisher.  It can happen.

But good ole Blizzard is setting up ATVI for growth inspite of what the economy throws at Activision.

Oh and for those *pouting* away over PS3's price tag... Get a Rag Towel....Wipe your tears....

Anytime 1 PS3 is purchased....that's 1 more shopper for ATVI.... so this talk of DOOM because not enough consoles are being bought in as fast a fashion as hypersensitive Wallstreet wishes is just silly talk.  1 + 0 still equals 1 for ATVI.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 08, 2009 at 6:30 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

Dude did you know you are featured in my ATVI news section on Google Finance?!  You're famous man!

I agree that for the forseeable future, Blizzard is going to be Activisions sugar daddy.  Not that I'm not hugely looking forward to Modern Warfare 2.  It may be the first game I preorder, something I usually insist against.  But DJ Hero with its $120ish price tag smack dab in the middle of a horrible recession doesn't sit well with me.  Longer term, I think ATVI is due to plateau for a little while.  Not saying there isn't more upside, but their size, their publishing frequency (especially on the 'Hero' series), high expectations, and a piss poor economy are all working against them.  Something's gotta give.

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#2) On July 08, 2009 at 9:23 PM, Varchild2008 (84.01) wrote:

I shouldn't be famous... I'm just using my blog to make sure I don't make a stupid mistake...

There are 2 things in life ChannelDunlap in regards to the investment world:

1) Moves you make that are stupid and wrong...  Like when I thought I could quick trade HOTT  *yikes*

2) Moves that represent the true spirit of Motley Fool..  The "Foolish" moves.  Moves that are simply correct even if the current environment is trying to convince you that you are wrong.

Key Difference?

#1  You make out of pure emotion and little fact checking...

#2  You disregard emotions and focus on pure fact checking to try and spot not just the short term catalyst for a stock... but the reason to "BUY" and "HOLD" the stock for a much longer time period.... Thus stomaching the short term massive hits to your share price.

I held "SWTX" for over a year and I've seen the stock get annihilated over and over again.  Now the company is doing well.. extremely well... Share price is now reflecting reality and SWTX looks set for a bright future....

ATVI same thing...  Even in worst case scenario Starcraft II and Diablo III disappoint.... Which would be a jaw dropping pessimistic, mind blowing shock, to have happen....   The MMOG aspect of Blizzard is ultimately the real catalyst for holding the stock WELL past the release dates of those 2 games.

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