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alstry (< 20)

You Say Recession????



July 17, 2009 – Comments (20)

General Electric Q2 revenue down 17% to $39.1 bln

Mattel Q2 sales down 19% to $898 million

Intel and Dell down approximately 20%...many techs reporting material sales declines

Transporation Companies down 20% and more

Auto Sales down 50%

New Home Sales down approaching 80%

Media Sales Down double digits(including Google in this catagory)

Retail Sales down double digits with thousands of retailers shutting down

Airline Revenues down over 20%

Hotel Revenues down over 20%

U6 unemployment over 16% which better reflects sales declines

A Depression is only a 10% decline in GDP..........

With consumer credit contracting and company after company, industry after industry reporting strong double digit sales declines over the past few can economists still be calling this a Recession?

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 17, 2009 at 7:23 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

And third quarter appears to be deteriorating....

Polaris Industries Inc predicted third-quarter revenue decline of 25 to 30 percent.

We are rapidly getting to the point where the primary spender in America will be government......

“We’re going to go bankrupt as a nation,” Biden said.

“Now, people when I say that look at me and say, ‘What are you talking about, Joe? You’re telling me we have to go spend money to keep from going bankrupt?’” Biden said. “The answer is yes, that's what I’m telling you.”

Now the only question is who will fund government's spending....what will it need to take from its citizens to prevent America from going bankrupt.

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#2) On July 17, 2009 at 7:32 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


Sales of video game hardware and software were down by around one-third in June compared to the same month last year, according to data released late Thursday. After initially showing positive growth as the U.S. slid into recession, the latest figures mark the fourth month of declines and the largest year-on-year decline in almost 9 years.

"The first half of the year has been tough largely due to comparisons against a stellar first half performance last year, but still, this level of decline is certainly going to cause some pain and reflection in the industry," said Anita Frazier, a games analyst with NPD Group, in an e-mailed statement.

The entire video game market in the U.S. was worth US$1.2 billion in June, down 31 percent from the same period last year, according to NPD Group. Software accounted for more than half the market with sales of $625.8 million, down 29 percent on June last year, while game hardware sales came in at $382.6 million, down 38 percent.

Those declines mark the worst year-on-year since September 2000, when the market witnessed a 40 percent fall, and it could get worse.

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#3) On July 17, 2009 at 8:16 AM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:

 Morning Alstry,

I know exactly who else would be up at 5am looking at GE earnings release. lol.

I  understand you are trying to support your point that the government must continue to spend to keep us from having a larger slump in growth; however, Biden's comments seemed to me like they were in reference to healthcare reform. In other words, we need to spend money now, to change things so we save money later. His point to me was that healthcare will bankrupt the US if we don't address it.


On a different note. I know how you love setting dates for market epiphanies, so your 09.09 prediction is being watched with curiousity. I am of the opinion that we will allow deflation to scare investors into treasuries, rather than continue to talk like the economy is strong as a lure for t-bill investors. It sounds to me like you are of the opinion that lack of demand will force the tbill rates higher and creating an issues. Can you point me to some articles you have read that help you conclude this?

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#4) On July 17, 2009 at 8:18 AM, OneLegged (< 20) wrote:

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#5) On July 17, 2009 at 8:26 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


On treasuries....I agree with you.

9.09 applies to other issues.

At this point, revenues are collapsing all around earnings are simply engineered.  Workers are being forced to work without pay or not work at all... while bankers get enormous bonuses.

From an accounting standpoint, the system is corrupt and can't sustain much longer.  Negotiations are taking much longer to resolve as many of them are beyond repair.

I track trends and my guess in the near future we are going to start to see unrest in America.  It will start with protests....foreseeably in CA.

Until we restore integrity in the game, we are sliding down a very steep hill.

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#6) On July 17, 2009 at 8:27 AM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:

One Legged, the link doesn't work.

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#7) On July 17, 2009 at 8:32 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

I guess Pennsylvania will be first.......

This whole thing is just plain nuts.........we seem to be intentionally trying to agitate the population of our country by giving bankers huge bonuses after taxpayer bailouts and not paying other workers....

Maybe agitation is the goal after all....9.09


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#8) On July 17, 2009 at 8:47 AM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:

Ok, thanks. Yeah, what have you guys done to California....and Las Vegas for that matter....and our beloved, now 17% unemploment - 50% RE value decline, Bend Oregon. You Californians (shaking head) LOL. 

I have been trying to  figure out how the CA issues is going to be resolved myself. I know we're at a critical point so your 09.09 prediction is understandable. I don't have the contacts to sum up the situation, as well as you do, but the market's rah rah behavior when the  fundemental problems remain at large is amazing to me...Then again, we saw this cheering at YE 2006 when housing began its swan dive and talking heads wouldn't stop selling the dream cake and passing out free cups of kool Aid to help wash it down. 

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#9) On July 17, 2009 at 8:55 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


Here is the problem in a nutshell....

As sales and profits evaporate, the private economy in America is driving very little revenues to the government.

On the other hand, in the past 10 years the government has doubled and now drives much of the private economy's revenues and profits.

Basically, most of the earnings now are simply as a result of payments FROM government to the companies...especially banks, defense contractors, drug companies, pharmacies etc...

Without revenues coming in, our government will have to make dramatic changes.....very dramatic changes.

The status quo can't continue for long if we want to remain capitalist nation, or let the world perceive we are a capitalist nation.

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#10) On July 17, 2009 at 9:07 AM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:

Roubini is saying the actual recessive economic trend should end around year end, but the hang-over will remain into 2011. Are you of the same opinion, or do you think the recessive trend will continue?

I can see the recessive trend ending given the size of the first stimulus and the extra push from the second stimulus...that will be sold to us here shortly.

 I agree with you that the system will change radically over the next 5-10 years, or we will see ourselves losing much more world power.

I haven't seen everything I would have liked to from the Obama administration, but it seems like they were most concerned with stopping the bleeding, and now they are focusing more on a long term strategy.  

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#11) On July 17, 2009 at 9:15 AM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

Did anybody else catch that forclosures were down 15% in Ohio the first half of the year?  That's right, Down!  If we apply Astrynomics and just extrapolate that data out to the whole country, it is clear that this recession is on it's last legs.

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#12) On July 17, 2009 at 9:16 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Roubini keeps pushing back his recovery six months every six months.....he can't be too over the edge based on his position at Stern and to maintain acceptance in the mainstream.....

Practically every city, county and state in America are going to have to slash their budgets between see anything getting better in the next six months???

We are already seeing prosecutors' offices stop pursuing minor misdemeanors due to budget constraints.....what do you think is going to happen when people learn that there is no consequence for breaking and entering?

There is simply no money and unless we relieve the burden of debt on the economy, as the economy continues to slow, debt will consume more and more leaving less and less for GDP.

As government debt increases, taxes upon those who can pay will skyrocket.......simply to service debt.

The joke is the higher revenues to banks will simply go to offsetting the higher default rates as the banks gain title to practically every asset in America...welcome to Zombulation.

My guess is around October/Novemeber...we will see another extension to Spring.

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#13) On July 17, 2009 at 9:59 AM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, PA has done this for all of Governor Rendell's years in office. They never have a budget on time, always reach an agreement at the 11th hour and the game continues.

If this time is slightly different, but as soon as the reality of monetary damages due gets close, a budget will be passed and workers paid. The state does not want thousands of quadzillion dollar suits out there.

The "budget impasse" "state workers to be furloughed" has been occurring since 2007. It gives the state "bargaining power"  

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#14) On July 17, 2009 at 10:00 AM, OneLegged (< 20) wrote:

I don't know how to post hyperlinks here so the address above will have to be Copied and Pasted to a brower's address bar.  Sorry.

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#15) On July 17, 2009 at 10:02 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


CORPORATIONS  AND INDIVIDUALS have much lower incomes......The states have VERY LITTLE revenues.....this has NEVER happened in the past.......


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#16) On July 17, 2009 at 10:23 AM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, agreed.

PA expects a 15% drop in revenue. 85% is far from "very little" So it will be slightly different, but an agreement will be hammered out.

The reduction is required to flush out the recent (housing bubble) run up in "wealth". That is countrywide. We need to revert to sustainable levels. I feel that there is at least 20% available in programs that will go unnoticed, or at least un fought for buy the constituents. In a bloated budget 20% can be found without taking the whole system apart.

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#17) On July 17, 2009 at 10:28 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Do you really believe that 15% number???

Based on recent figures.....25-30% is much more likely.

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#18) On July 17, 2009 at 10:48 AM, edgebander (93.99) wrote:

To those of you who doubt what alstry is saying need only look at the situation with CIT the government doesn't want to help them because they sayt that CIT doesn't pose a systemic risk.  Hold on they are one of the biggest lenders to small businesses.  If your not retarded you know that small business is the driver of the real economy not massive corporations who consistently rely on Government handouts to survive.  The real reason is the Government "is" an extension of GS and they have no connection with CIT.  So if you just think about the risk of our government being run for the benefit of one or a few massive corporations in the US than you must understand the next thing that will come is civil unrest. 

 The long term trend is down for America and the only way out is to double taxes and cut spending in half.  Whoever doesn't think that is the case is blind.  Biden is a moron who lets little things slip.  America is going bankrupt and the only way to avoid it is to cripple the American people all the while keeping certain people filthy rich.  While I am not an advocate of civil disobedience I fail to see anything that the average American can do to change what every level of Government is doing to them.  I don't care whether your a democrat or a republican, both parties are the same they say the same things and protect the same people.  They are quick to freeze pay levels for the average worker and faster to give the elite pay raises.

The American people need to wake up and realize that their Government is being run by GS none of who were elected but all of whom are destroying the country.  With revenues falling as alstry put it by 20 odd percent were is the government going to come up with the money to pay themselves let alone all the other shortfalls that come with a twenty percent decrease in revenues.  If you think that the Government can continue to increase spending on anything and keep taxes where they are than you really are crazy.

There is a reason that the reserve forces are running training excercises on civil disobedience.  Good Luck

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#19) On July 17, 2009 at 11:05 AM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

Probably not 15% (I wiggled out with the "expects" qualifier),  I think things will hurt, but do the masses have the fortitude to do something about it?

They will "hurt", but not kill.


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#20) On July 17, 2009 at 11:06 AM, jesusfreakinco (28.11) wrote:

VP Biden,

All hail the USD printing press... Let us worship the USD printing press...  It is a joke.  The printing press will bankrupt the country because of the loss in confidence in the dollar.  We are doomed with this approach and this Admin appears to have bought into it hook line and sinker. 

Where is Paul Volcker when you need him?


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