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alstry (36.32)

You were Warned.....

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January 23, 2009 – Comments (11)

Hopefully you have prepared......

[STP] Suntech cuts 800 jobs, suspends 2,000 new hires

[GE] GE to reduce workforce, simplify its organization

Harley-Davidson laying off 1,100 as profit falls sharply

Oil service giant Schlumberger sees more tough times ahead

Bridgestone to cut 800 workers at Tennessee plant

Retailers at risk in 2009, he thinks, include outerwear specialist Eddie Bauer and teen-apparel-seller Pacific Sunwear, along with Zales, the big jewelry chain. All three shuttered at least 8% of their U.S. stores last year, with many more closings expected. The same is largely true of Charming Shoppes, the owner of Lane Bryant, which closed 150 stores last year. With a mountain of debt and losses totaling over $260 million over the most recent 12-month reporting period, the company will close another 100 locations this year.

Another possible casualty: Sears Holdings, operator of Sears and Kmart stores. A key to hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert's 2005 merger of the two chains was in the underlying real estate. But with those values down 30% or so since then, slumping sales hit even worse.

"I'd be surprised if Sears-Kmart makes it through the year," says Britt Beemer, who runs retail market-research firm America's Research Group.

Non-apparel specialists like Starbucks and Sprint Nextel won't be going away, but they will close hundreds more stores during the coming year, Davidowitz predicts. Narrow specialties (Sprint's cellphones) and high prices (Starbucks' coffee) are tough sells as the consumer mood turns thrifty. What plagues Starbucks will also affect other upscale goody chains like Mrs. Fields' Cookies, and causal dining outlets like Applebee's and Cheesecake Factory. Any of the neighborhood outlets for those restaurant chains could be a casualty this year. For too many customers now, it's McDonald's or bust.

http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/106466/Where-You-Won't-Shop-in-2009

If you really want to laugh...go back and look at the comments some of the Fools, like FloridaBuilder and others were saying when I was warning them last year at about this time...

In November, according to the NY Times, 3X the number of people dropped out of the workforce compared to those counted as unemployed....think about that for a second........could we be ALREADY at 25% unemployment (current reported rate is about 7%) if we used traditional unemployment counting methods as opposed to the revised methods currently utilized????

I have little doubt that we are ALREADY at 25% functional unemployment applying the Alstrynomics definition of those needing to work but not earning a basic needs subsistance living.

You have been warned....time and time again....with a variety of real life examples and exclamation marks and other various punctuation symbols....good luck as the time for honoring ourselves is coming to an end.

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 23, 2009 at 9:46 AM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

....with a variety of real life examples and exclamation marks and other various punctuation symbols....

 

Alstry, you crack me up.

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#2) On January 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.02) wrote:

Al,

You were warned as well by all us gold bugs...

http://www.kitco.com/

Got gold?

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#3) On January 23, 2009 at 1:17 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

"I have little doubt that we are ALREADY at 25% functional unemployment applying the Alstrynomics definition of those needing to work but not earning a basic needs subsistance living."

Uhm... That model is flawed IF and only IF you are including High School / Junior High and etc. kids who get paid far less than a subsistance living amount but don't have to worry about that because they live with their parents... Don't count the College years either in your model in which money is primarily earned through a Federally Funded College Campus Job and used for Tuition and Dorm Life.

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#4) On January 23, 2009 at 1:43 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

I'm certainly pickin' up what your puttin' down, but I have a quick question regarding your reference to "preparing".... What do you mean by "prepare"?

I've put most of my cash into what seem to be beaten down stocks starting in November (half are shown in My Caps, the other half in penny stocks)...

So what do you mean by "prepare" ?

...and thanks for your informative contributions to this community!

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#5) On January 23, 2009 at 2:20 PM, mliu01 (< 20) wrote:

jesusfreakinco: yeah.

 we can't left alstry behind.

He helped us getting all the job cut numbers. Hate to see he is on the other side of our trade.

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#6) On January 23, 2009 at 2:51 PM, VIS46 (34.37) wrote:

 Alstry

What is the prospect for stock market.Sell everything long and short the market.What is the bottom for Dow  & S&P.

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#7) On January 23, 2009 at 10:58 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

VIS 

As I see it the near term prognosis for the market is not too pretty.

JFC and mliu,

If you notice I am not long or short gold...right now I am on the sidelines cheering you on....

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#8) On January 23, 2009 at 11:23 PM, Seano67 (25.10) wrote:

Alstry, what is your forecast on the GDP numbers being released next week? Are we still in contraction- and if so, by how much?

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#9) On January 24, 2009 at 1:11 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.02) wrote:

Al, Come on... With headlines such as this: Are the Gold Bugs Gold Nuts????? you mean to tell me that you are on the sidelines? It seems to me you have clearly chosen sides in the argument.  Perhaps you haven't made any CAPS picks or investments, but to say that you are cheering us on is a bit disingenuos. 

At least be a man enough to admit you are a gold basher.  It is written all over several of your blogs...

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#10) On January 24, 2009 at 4:49 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

I am not a gold basher or gold supporter.....gold is gold.....legally it is no longer money...but it might again someday......if so I will have a different perspective......I bash the perspective of gold bugs....those that try to make it something it isn't or take on a role it had decades ago.

Yes, there is a limited supply of gold...but there is also a limited supply of condos in Miami.....and condos are crashing there.....because supply exceeds demand.....right now the demand for gold exceeds supply and prices are going up......soon that might change or even accellerate....only time will tell:)

I simply find the passion which the gold bugs take toward gold comical....but then again, I find some adult pro sports fans not too different....it is just my perspective....something we are each entitled to....

Who knows, maybe I will go out next week and buy a few hundred ounces just for fun.....probably better than going to Vegas.

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#11) On January 28, 2009 at 11:08 PM, mollykat (58.81) wrote:

I'm puzzled. Is alstry the author of this list of troubled companies? I saw this exact article before reading this blog. My thanks if he wrote it and my thanks for our other members who did not see the article. Good info from any source better than no info.

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