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XMFSinchiruna (27.49)

Your Vote for Best Stocks for 2009?

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December 02, 2008 – Comments (25)

Okay Fools! I'd like to know your thoughts. If you had to pick just one company to invest in in 2009 -- one that you feel has the stuff to thrive in 2009 even in the face of the economic woes we are all too aware of -- please share your pick with us here. Which company would it be, and why? If you're recently explained why in a CAPS pitch, please share a link to your pitch in the comments below. If you haven't written a pitch for the stock in CAPS yet, then use this opportunity to tell your fellow Fools why you think this is a sure-fire winner for 2009, and then still post your link here. You don't have to use the pitch format ... that's just a suggestion. By all means, feel free to simply pontificate in the comment section below if you prefer. Either way, I am happy to have your heartfelt feedback to this worthwhile question.

If you make a strong case for your pick, I will try to incorporate your feedback into an article this month, so you can e-mail a link to your friends and family before the new year. After all, nothing says Happy New Year like a hot stock tip. :)

Have fun with this one, and I will share my own pick in an article towards the end of the month.

Fool on!

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 02, 2008 at 10:46 AM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

WNR-- last quarter made $1.60 a share trades at 6 bucks. Ridiculous. My blogs from September explain my views more throughly.

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#2) On December 02, 2008 at 10:46 AM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

WNR-- last quarter made $1.60 a share trades at 6 bucks. Ridiculous. My blogs from September explain my views more throughly.

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#3) On December 02, 2008 at 10:59 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.49) wrote:

goldminingXpert

GMX, thanks for the post! Any way I could request a link to specific blog posts? Thanks!

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#4) On December 02, 2008 at 11:00 AM, dangerfairy (< 20) wrote:

Gold is money and will show its true colors in a nation on the verge of bankruptcy.

Mining shares like ABX and AUY are headed higher in 2009 but not because of monetary inflation. We are sorely in debt and the demand for money (whether that be in dollars or gold) is going higher in 2009.

Commodities will be hit hard in the first half of 2009. I think oil could sink a little lower than $40.

Equities are simply not done bleeding. As long as the experts are still calling a bottom I'm increasing my short positions on the market.

The amount of money the Fed is printing "is just a drop in the bucket" compared to amount of debt and that is why you will see more and more people walking away from their houses next year.

The demand is for money. Stay liquid.

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#5) On December 02, 2008 at 11:01 AM, abitare (35.73) wrote:

skf, srs, auy = my favorites

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#6) On December 02, 2008 at 11:09 AM, Jman18 (< 20) wrote:

xto will outpreform in 2009. has been severly punished by falling nat gas prices but has 77% of its 09 production hedged at 10.77 per Mcfe so it is in a better position than CHK or other nat gas companies if nat gas stays where it is now.

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#7) On December 02, 2008 at 11:15 AM, catoismymotor (35.07) wrote:

CALM - Times are hard for small mom and pop operations. Many of them are looking to sell. This creates opportunities for companies like Cal-Maine. They just picked up a smaller egg producer in Florida, making it possible to expand their territory and increase their sales.

This is a great small cap that is simple, dull and profitable. Who is going to stop eating eggs in a recession?

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#8) On December 02, 2008 at 11:38 AM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

alright, I've written about WNR a lot. Here are all the entries:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=77448&t=01008631960540474609

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=82081&t=01008631960540474609

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=83343&t=01008631960540474609

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=87012&t=01008631960540474609 

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#9) On December 02, 2008 at 11:59 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.49) wrote:

Thanks, all. This is a great start! Let's keep them coming. Thanks for posting links GMX.

 abitare

Always a rebel. :)  Could you pick just one and offer a few words on the why. Pretend I know nothing of the stock you choose and tell my why it's your best pick for 2009.

 catoismymotor

Nice pick! Thanks!

 Jman18

excellent analysis! I'm digging that one, which I also happen to own.

dangerfairy

very interesting hypothesis. Thanks for posting! Any preference between ABX and AUY?

 

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#10) On December 02, 2008 at 2:45 PM, dangerfairy (< 20) wrote:

No preference. In the long run it won't matter. There is plenty of room for both and many more in the gold mining industry.

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#11) On December 02, 2008 at 4:38 PM, DemonDoug (72.32) wrote:

PAAS.  2009 is the year silver shoots sky-high.  Just one man's opinion.

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#12) On December 02, 2008 at 6:35 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.49) wrote:

DemonDoug

Great pick! But I just went to your CAPS page to see if there was a pitch I could use, and notice you haven't green thumbed it yet. If it's your top pick for 2009, surely you won't mind giving it a green thumb and offering your fellow Fools a convincing pitch that I may be able to use in an article. :)

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#13) On December 02, 2008 at 9:05 PM, rd80 (98.32) wrote:

I read the entry again and caught that the question is "one company to invest in in 2009."  For me, that doesn't necesarily mean the company with the best potential for gains, it means a company that offers good return prospects with limited risk.

Among the stocks I own, if I had to trim down to just one right now it would be MCD.  My blog from Oct is a much better pitch than my pitch.  MCD doesn't have the return potential of some of the other stocks mentioned so far.  But it won't hurt me as bad if I'm wrong.

In this environment, there's a lot to be said for boring stocks.

For a little more risk, if you like goldminingXpert's WNR or refiners in general - Graham (GHM).  They make the heat exchangers, etc. used in refineries.  No debt, currently trading at about twice the cash on the books, strong backlog at last earnings call. This was an IBD 100, big momentum stock earlier this year and is now down something like 80+% from the highs. Pitch

 

 

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#14) On December 02, 2008 at 9:46 PM, kfisherprotege (30.44) wrote:

CNOA.OB.  I can't pitch it since it falls under the CAPS radar.  But here's a pretty good pitch I read today:

http://www.murphyanalytics.com/uploads/CNOA_Update

It has a P/E multiple of around 1.0 and traded today at .46  It's a Chinese organic food and wine company transforming itself into a dominant food distributor (think SYSCO in the 80's and 90's).  I'm ready to pounce on this one.

I also hope catois... is right about CALM in '09.  It's in my CAPS and $ portfolios (a 5%+ position).

-kfp

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#15) On December 03, 2008 at 1:34 AM, Gingerbreadman55 (28.79) wrote:

Harvest Energy Trust - HTE -

All the Canadian energy trusts were beaten down with oil prices and deflation in the past few months, and Harvest, like the rest, has dropped to an extremely low level. Even with the major oil and natural gas price drop, Harvest still maintained the ability to continue to pay a $.30 CAN dividend.

The forward outlook looks good as well, as they continue to have the ability to tighten margins and increase output. From their last Financial Report:

"-2009 Upstream - We are budgeting $260 million in annual capital expenditures, weighted towards capturing value of the near-term drilling opportunities on our oil and liquids-rich natural gas properties. We are also continuing to advance our unconventional asset strategy in tight gas, tight oil, oil sands and tertiary enhanced recovery. Based on this level of capital spending, we anticipate 2009 production volumes to average between 52,000 and 53,000 barrels per day, with operating costs of approximately $15/boe. Royalties as a percentage of 2008 revenue are expected to be consistent with our recent historical rates of approximately 17%.

-2009 Downstream - We are budgeting $62 million in annual capital expenditures, with approximately one-half directed towards discretionary projects. With planned turnarounds during the year, we anticipate 2009 refinery throughput to average approximately 110,000 bbl/d. Our 2009 per barrel operating costs are expected to be improved relative to 2008 due to anticipated lower purchased energy costs and higher throughput volumes."

I fully expect oil prices to rebound at least back to $60-$75. OPEC and the rest of the oil producing world enjoyed their taste of high prices and you can bet they will pursue those prices again.

Another great reason to own Harvest is the dividend in canadian dollars. Right now the American Dollar has gone exponential. The dollar strength is short lived and soon will correct downward when the impact of our bailouts and government ownership begins to hit.

Harvest is encouraging for its continued strength and ability to pay out a substantial dividend, which relative to its current price stands between 25 and 30 percent. It carries the promise to further shrink its margins and stands to gain a lot if(when) oil creeps up again. Plus it makes a strong hedge against a falling dollar and increasing inflation from the trillions of dollars America is spending on bailouts and buyouts.

With so many benefits with much less risk, plus a guranteed 7-%10 return just on dividends at today's price, I choose Harvest Energy Trust as my favorite 2009 pick.

 

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#16) On December 03, 2008 at 3:27 AM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

HTE divi goes away if oil doesn't recover soon.

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#17) On December 03, 2008 at 4:31 AM, Daretoth (< 20) wrote:

ATVI

Nothing says gaming like Activsion Blizzard. Think World of Warcraft and Guitar Hero. And before you try to argue that entertainment will take hit in a period of recession/depression I want to remind you that one of the highest grossing movies of all time came in 1939 with Gone With the Wind. Movies did fairly well overall during the depression because people look for escape when times are bad. Video Games are the movies of today and are much more cost effective since you can play them for hours instead of being done in 2-3 hours after you watch a movie. The industry is slowly outpacing the movie industry and has seen consistant growth.

ATVI has been solid throughout recent years and I feel will continue to be in coming years. It might not get you 30% returns in a single year, but if you are looking for an "investment" instead of a day trade, it's a pretty safe bet.

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#18) On December 03, 2008 at 5:20 AM, StockSpreadsheet (70.84) wrote:

I like JNJ.  Recently bought in real-life.  They are big, sell a lot of products that people will buy, recession or no, and pay a decent dividend.  Have gotten hammered recently, (I think down 45% for the year), and I think this brings the stock down into value territory and is a stock that can be owned for years to come.

It may not be a stock that will make the biggest gains next year, but I think it will be a solid performer in these turbulent times and makes a good core holding, plus I think it could be a long-term holding.

My two cents.

Craig 

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#19) On December 03, 2008 at 9:54 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.49) wrote:

Thank you all so much for these great submissions. I own HTE, and don't think the dividend is going anywhere. In fact, I own a basket of Canroys that are the income-generating foundation of my portfolio. JNJ is a solid depression-resistent company, and I'm sure MickeyDs will be around for the next business cycle as well. :) I can't personally get behind the ATVI pick, but that doesn't mean I wasn't duly impressed with the pitch you made! I think you're right that people will continue to seek forms of entertainment in any environment, but I just think they'll gravitate towards cheaper forms.

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#20) On December 03, 2008 at 10:09 AM, kaskoosek (58.63) wrote:

Activition is a good company, but I woul never buy its stock at the current price. 

 

The earnings are inflated, because of WOW.

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#21) On December 03, 2008 at 11:49 AM, Gingerbreadman55 (28.79) wrote:

goldminingXpert

They have already announced the dividend up to february. So that makes 4 payouts of $.30 each until then. at 1.20 per share guaranteed return when it only costs $9.00 per share... pretty good if you ask me.

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#22) On December 09, 2008 at 7:10 PM, gnulaw (54.02) wrote:

RHT. Is at a tipping point of running away with dominance of open source industry. Jim Whitehurst. Quarterly earnings growth (yoy) 16.4%, quarterly revenue growth (yoy) 29.2%, $1B cash, + Financial meltdown driving Corp America to Open Source solutions v. MSFT. Employee passion equal with Google, et al. Was a steal when it recently hit < $9/sh.

 

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#23) On December 12, 2008 at 12:58 PM, ocsurf (< 20) wrote:

MO- Good price and a good dividend.

People smoke when they're happy and people smoke when they're sad and stressed.

People smoke when they drink and people smoke after they eat.

Smoking, it's the gift that keeps putting money in my pocket regardless of the economy :)

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#24) On December 12, 2008 at 8:29 PM, EnigmaDude (91.58) wrote:

Right now I like ETP.  It is a beaten down natural gas MLP and has a great yield which is not likely to be decreased in 2009.

Here is some info from Zacks that explains my position:

This atmosphere of fear and over-reaction has created attractive opportunities to own quality energy infrastructure MLPs with low risk profiles and juicy yields.

 

 

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#25) On December 15, 2008 at 10:10 AM, kfisherprotege (30.44) wrote:

I retract my entry for CNOA.OB.  There is news of a serious class action suit against the companies execs, http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/081212/0460135.html.  Until that pans out, I'm holding judgment on this company.  -kfp

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