American Airlines Group, Inc. (NASDAQOTH:AAMRQ.DL)

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Player Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 2/14/2013 2:46:08 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.95 AAMRQ.DL Score: +34.24

Over 1/3rd of AAMR's shares traded today after the merger announcement with US Air was confirmed. I would have liked to have been in on the downthumb on the $2.50 pop to get some instant margin.

Overall, my timing may be off, or my math may be off. 90% (antedotally) of bankruptcy's end up with ZERO to shareholders. AAMR traded at a low of $0.43. Some in closedown have erratic share prices as penny stock speculators vie with shorts. Some in reorg merger, do come out with something for shareholders, but again this is rare.

Some news reports cite a 3.5% conversion for AAMR shareholders. Math varies depending on how you adjust US Airways share price, debt of the two, and shares outstanding. My math is between $0.83 and $1.28 per share, so the $2.00 we are running at all afternoon just doesn't compute. But then again, 114 Million shares traded so far means people on both sides of the fence.

I'm for a slow volume drop, and a settling. There is no doubt this will go to zero as the merger is finalized, but will shareholders get a paycheck? At what price?? Wish I had some $0.40 shares, but I wouldn't be holding them if I did.

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Member Avatar anchak (99.84) Submitted: 2/14/2013 3:21:49 PM
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OK - at least someone looked at the numbers - I couldn't make head or tail

THX!

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 2/14/2013 3:32:15 PM
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My math could be subject, even if the inputs are right! At any rate, I "forgot" to count for the end of day rally off the rally of those who waited until end of day to cover and didn't want to leave them open overnight. I'll take my temporary short term bad timing and wait for the math to settle.

Member Avatar Kvedarna (99.50) Submitted: 2/19/2013 11:05:48 AM
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Enjoyed yr post. Pls know that a lot of stock loan games are played in circs like this. People get bought in. Shares that must be delivered to b/r ct are bought in if over short.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 2/19/2013 5:19:21 PM
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Yes, it can take some time to bleed down, between shorts/borrowing, computer tradeing and speculators, but there has been enough volume the last few days (60% of float), that all but the speculators should have had time to take thier profit. Sometimes some re-up too early and get caught again. A large bounce in these cases is not unusual, but it usually doesn't last long. There are a lot of "fuzzy math" estimates out there, but despite the trend, I'l stick with mine! ;)

Member Avatar anchak (99.84) Submitted: 3/12/2013 3:26:22 PM
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At $4 now - you feeling good about your math still?

LOL!

I am still with you

Member Avatar FalconBoston (99.74) Submitted: 3/12/2013 3:56:40 PM
Recs: 4

People should remember that Bear Stearns and other companies that wiped out shareholders often move up several fold before they go to $0 in one day.

My math says $1.15, but airlines suck, so I will hold afterwards waiting for it to trail the market.

Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 3/12/2013 5:23:58 PM
Recs: 2

Misery loves company Anchak! It's not so lonely!
Thanks for the math confirmation FalconBoston.
The Bankruptcy cycle certainly is more complicated for most than it should be. The fact "commoners" get anything is rare enough, that they get a percent of an un-yet determined figure is even odder. Overall, I'm willing to continue riding this one, but volume is larger than average short covering, position closing. What goes UP "may" go down!! :)

Member Avatar anchak (99.84) Submitted: 3/13/2013 10:52:55 AM
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You guys should see FAA - the Airlines ETF - almost shaming Nikkei down - if it was even possible!

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