Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK)

staffier (21.02) Submitted: 8/01/08 11:09 AM

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even under horrific scenarios, ambac has the ability to pay its claims. this stock is certainly NOT heading to zero...

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DemonDoug (99.75) Submitted: 8/06/08 6:24 PM

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On what evidence do you base that statement? The only way ABK can pay it's claims is if it gets a direct bailout from the government. Both ABK and MBIA have lost considerable marketshare, their premiums were down 95%. The idiots rally today (which, I'll be honest, is seriously p*ssing me off), is due to the fact that they reported a "profit" that really was nothing more than accounting trickery. ABK is as insolvent as a bond insurer can get, and watch out if and when the Muni's start defaulting. I've basically caught myself in the mother of all short-covering rallies, based on a whole lot of blow-hard phooey press releases from a company that is in it's last gasps of air while drowning.

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anchak (97.47) Submitted: 8/07/08 10:12 PM

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You get a rec! and thanks for the post on my blog. Yes I saw the premium shrinkage - basically no incoming cash - a lot of future premiums are also being recognized early due to closures - and I am sure on a severe discounted basis. I think they can truly run out of cash - that's why I was very curious to see how much liquid investments they had - if they start selling that would be a sign.

Good point on litigation. However, most counterparties are also scared - dont upset the applecart. Citi took a 50% haircut on the guarantee - did not enforce. Q is, who would it be - Merrill of all firms actually has the habit of belling the cat -whether it goes for/against - last year they were the people who were forcing auction of the CDO collaterals when the hedge funds collapsed and the cat was out of the bag.

The RDN comment is interesting - you are going to force me to look!

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staffier (21.02) Submitted: 8/15/08 4:11 PM

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"On what evidence do you base that statement?" Um, I think the burden of proof is on your shoulders. Both Moody's and S&P agree that Ambac (and MBIA, for that matter) have sufficient capital to pay future claims even under their excessively negative (and shoddy) forecasts. I hope you're not shorting the monolines in real life...

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DeerHunter73 (< 20) Submitted: 8/22/08 10:47 AM

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Third Avenue upped its stake in Ambac to 27.7 million shares, up from 7.4 million shares on April 30


Been sayin for 2 weeks this stock was going over 6.00 maybe to 10.00. Last thursday it went to 5.99. Should hit that on 08/15/2008 if not by then prob on monday. Either way i sold my 1st set at 5.90 and bought another set at 3.80. Lets see what this one does


Ambac's AA Rating Affirmed by S&P
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 14, 2008--Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today announced that Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P) affirmed the 'AA' financial strength rating on Ambac Assurance Corporation (AAC) and removed it from CreditWatch Negative.

S&P stated that the rating affirmation reflects its assessment of Ambac's:

-- Satisfactory capital position, measured against conservative
projections of potential losses;

-- Successful ongoing efforts to remediate the outstanding
mortgage-related exposure; and

-- Broad refocusing of the business and risk management to
position the company to take advantage of any new business
opportunities and to meaningfully participate in the credit
enhancement industry as quickly as possible, including
retaining the necessary management and staff to support these
initiatives.

The rating is on negative outlook, reflecting Ambac's exposure to domestic nonprime mortgages and related exposures to collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities (CDO of ABS) and its impact on Ambac's future business prospects.

Michael Callen, Chairman and CEO, stated, "Ambac's remediation and commutation efforts will continue to address S&P's concerns related to our RMBS and CDO of ABS exposures. Moreover, we are diligently working to rebuild our franchise and are pleased with the progress we are achieving in support of establishing a new subsidiary focused on the municipal and public purpose financing markets."

Now that the comp is OFF neg watch this will prob be a good time for them to get the approval on connie lee and have that comp going. ......................

Lets see had there stake upd by 3rd

got a 250 mil airforce contract.

Takin off neg watch.

Connie lee .

Paid off a bad debt total 1.4 bil

Thats in the last month . this stock is poised to double its share value if not triple by end of month. This newest buying spree will prob last thru next tuesday or wed which would make it a nice price. Then of course another sell off. after that sell off i would predict connie lee up and running and thats when they will spike roughly 5.00 to 10.00 over night

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DeerHunter73 (< 20) Submitted: 8/29/08 4:23 PM

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As stated over the last few weeks abk was set to rise. I said this back when abk was at 2.52 and 4.75. Said they would close above 6.00 and finish above 7.00 for the week wow guess i was wrong again...

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DeerHunter73 (< 20) Submitted: 9/02/08 4:23 PM

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connie lee approved and ready to open up said that 3 months ago. now there up 15% after market watch it tommorow as well as mbi

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DeerHunter73 (< 20) Submitted: 9/03/08 8:42 AM

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Demon, imagine how much money you would have made by today had you bought say 10000 shares in abk at your start price!!!!!

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DemonDoug (99.75) Submitted: 9/03/08 1:31 PM

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about 80 grand. Then again I would not risk 20 grand on a roulette table gamble which ambac was, and is, this company deserves the death penalty along with MBIA and the entire bond insurance industry and Moody's. I'd rather invest my money in a company that has shown good decision making, produces something of tangible value, and doesn't exist to rake municipalities and pension funds over the coals (for example any major canadian oil company).
You wanna play with crappy financial companies 73, be my guest. If financials continue to rise for no good reason, I'll continue to red thumb them in caps and pick up points, hopefully to offset this BS stock.

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kdakota630 (99.69) Submitted: 9/03/08 8:51 PM

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Replies like that are the reason I'm holding my position with this pick (and others that have KILLED my score) for the foreseeable future.

Would loved to have borrowed 73's crystal ball on this one though.

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DeerHunter73 (< 20) Submitted: 9/03/08 10:10 PM

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Somethign else i didnt know that i just found tonight to " Book Value/Share 6.76 " . Yet look at some of the other compaines with a book value of 12.00 trading at 45.00. That makes no since. Abk at a book value of 6.76 should be trading around 20.00 giving the several stocks i looked at there all the same. If you dont agree then explain why abk shouldnt be and explain why other companies are. One was Gme which i had shares in bought at 30 sold at 60 currently tradin in the low to mid 40s yet there value is 12.00 so the book value justifies a 4x book value trade? if so abk and mbi should be doing the same. just a thought which would make alot of since and thinking about makes you wonder why.

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DeerHunter73 (< 20) Submitted: 9/04/08 9:03 AM

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Another pefect example. Mbi book value per share is 16.67 . Yet there trading at 16.24 below book value like serveral other stocks trading 4x there book value

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DeerHunter73 (< 20) Submitted: 9/05/08 11:57 AM

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Inside buying of 1,194,499 shares of common stock on 09/03/2008 at the price of 8.65 each. Total cost was $10,332,416.35 . Thats alot of money and shares for a company going out of business or back to 0. As alot of the caps players state.

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staffier (21.02) Submitted: 9/22/08 5:21 PM

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Deer -- Just to let you know, I liquidated 3/4 of my ABK holdings @ ~$3.50 today. Moody's downgrade threat (and likely follow-up on their words) could easily cause a liquidity crisis. I stand by my earlier assessment -- Ambac is not insolvent -- but I'm not willing to gamble too much on this one, as I can see something similar to AIG's fate playing out here. I rolled my proceeds into MBIA.

Just my 2 cents...

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DeerHunter73 (< 20) Submitted: 9/23/08 11:51 AM

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i sold all of my abk on 09/08. for 10.00 each
when s&p removed them from credit watch i had a feeling connie lee would be approved and that happened. However as always moodys comes stomping on the back door of people who are down and they put them back on neg watch for downgrade. If abk is downgraded mbi shares will be cut in half, then youll see mbi put on negitive watch again. rating agencies to me are bs but thats my thought. like alot of caps players who pick and pick and pick stocks to outperform when the market is up, then when the market flips and goes down they change there pick to negitive. Most do it for the points although alot of them dont. Demon has made ALOT of good points over the past couple months while a few others do nothing more then talk down to people stating there opinion. if abk doesnt get down graded the few i did buy back will do nicely if not ive lost abk profit either way i dont lose now. As far as aig if the big investors are able to sell what they want to move from aig which im sure will happen espically after the fed bailout then aig would pay off the loan. Thats why i bought shares in aig at 2.16 each. from alot of other people also feel aig should get back to 20.00 rather fast if they can pay off the loan. again using abk profits on this buy as well.

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