$0.89
0.08 (+9.88%)
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK)
CAPS Rating:
A holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world.
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Ok so I am down over 100 on this one, but I dont care cause in the end I will be +100. Big deal they paid down some CDOs for a large amount... They have a lot more sketchy paper, and they are going to not be able to attract new business.
250 mil deal with AIRFORCE a month ago " NEW BUSINESS " after rating was dropped....................Connie Lee.....................good or bad financial report there going up. keep your pick at 2.27 for 6 months see how you rate then!
Too bad you guys are playing for CAPS points. I bought in RL for $3.67 a share. Earnings will eat expectations, and the stock will be up 10% tomorrow. We will then see a quick pullback soon after, but it will be smooth sailing from there. LONG ABK! Many of you investors held a position for a quick buck, a 20% return or so...but why not 100%, 200%,300% or more? Good luck to all!Apptennis
they lost 21% today due to aig. Tommorow may lose 10% mor so from mbi. after hours there alreay up4% for opening bell tommorow. take the good with bad . Yes abk was do to come down some. But 21% in a day was OVERSOLD and after tommorow buyers will be back on monday this will go up again.
btw earnings didnt beat expectations. they missed by 1.00 yet managed to show a profit on DEBT collecting not alot of new business. As i have been saying in the past read those posts
How is something that went up 100% in 2 days going and then going down 20% oversold? The market overreacts to everything. Suddenly there was this feel good feeling about abk because they sold off 1.5 billion of their 300+ billion dollars worth of paper, much of it really bad stuff. I would not touch this in real life, but I made my bet several months ago that they are going to 0 and I still believe this. nothing has really changed that. Who cares if they make Connie Lee, if I am a municipality, I probably have better credit than some company that has shown they take their money and invest it into risky things despite their AAA rating. The ratings firms are now realizing this as it is obvious that large municipalities are more stable than the AAA ambac. Also there are other players like buffett etc that are moving in as well with far more established stability.
your cracking me up! they went up 300 % on POSITIVE news and results. AIG post worse then expected all bond insurers fall. Now the annlysts from jpmorgan comes out with a dubass comment when abk is down to knock them down more. Guess he needed to feel important but he was to mich of a coward to pull that call when abk was at 70.00. Youll see abk will NEVER SEE 0 espically wrighting multi million dollar new business which they did a month ago on there A rating. AS far as buffet is concerned hes showing LOSSES as everyone else is. He stated this morning hes having to use his OWN money to cover that loss!!!!!
mpapile (94.38) Submitted: 8/05/08 10:36 PM Recs: 0 | Rec This This is not a payoff of debt.... It is a sale of debt for -850million dollars! This means that they paid 65% to get it all of the books. ABK backed the 1.4 billion, probably for pennies on the dollar. Now they are saying here take this, and even if 65% of the CDO defaults, you will break even! Word that how ever you want to. bottom line is they PAID OFF THERE BOOKS 1.4 BIL IN DEBT. Thats all that matters to investors! DEbts been paid off and on the books and in the INVESTORS EYES the ones who hold millions of shares and who hold 10000 shares its bad debt paid and gone! Next story
They are stuck in very illiquid contracts, and have 300 billion worth of them of varying degrees of quality. 1.4 billion represents a small percentage of the crap on their books, and with other banks etc writing of many more billions in losses on CDO's. Saying that you wrote off less than 1% of your worst investments at a 65% loss does not really impress me. So suppose they have 10 billion of slightly better stuff they can unload for 50% loss, and another 20 billion they can unload at 35% etc.... It adds up to a lot. The bottom line is that 1.4 billion is not even the tip of the iceberg, they still have low liquidity, they still have a CDO market that disappeared overnight, and they still shook the confidence in them which is their ONLY asset.I worded it that way because that is what it is. If someone owes you 1.4 billion and you sell that debt for 65% loss, you lost a lot. If that was your only problem and the loss is now gone, well then that is a good thing, but like I said, this is not their only problem, not even close. the 1.4 bil is a red herring, and people bought it for a few days, and now look what is happening.
If you got real money in this, I wish you luck. Just giving you some stuff from the other side.
ABK and MBI were taken off the "watch" list for downgrades and in the past 12 days both have doubled in price making 100% profits for the contrarians that saw the potential. They are still fractions of the 52 week highs and could double again by years end. Sometimes you have to switch directions on a stock and go with the tide. This one is on the rise over the course of the next year.
The company will be in business for a long time. Stock going higher.
As stated over the last few weeks abk was set to rise. I said this back when abk was at 2.52 and 4.75. Said they would close above 6.00 and finish above 7.00 for the week wow guess i was wrong again...
Now abk got connie approved i said 3 months ago it would be huge for them to get it and they finallt did. I then said once mbi took that deal last week within aweek or 2 you would hear about abk getting connie lee and what happened? they got it. those 2 run hand in hand on news . Now abk will most likely hit 10.00 this month maybe more..... My shares were bought between 3-4 . WORKS FOR ME!!!!
Inside buying of 405135 shares of common stock on 09/03/2008 at the price of 8.65 each. Total cost was $3,504,417.75. Thats alot of money and shares for a company going out of business or back to 0. As alot of the caps players state.
Inside buying of 1,194,499 shares of common stock on 09/03/2008 at the price of 8.65 each. Total cost was $10,332,416.35 . Thats alot of money and shares for a company going out of business or back to 0. As alot of the caps players state.
Umm divide that total cost by about 200000 and you would be right.Dude what are you smoking? The insider transactions on 9/3 were in the HUNDREDS of shares not the million plus shares you claim... This is on edgar. I don't know where you get those numbers from, and honestly, I am starting to think you are a paid tout of ABK. If you really did buy in at 3-4 and you doubled your money now, good.. sell. As we see with fannie and freddie this whole debacle over mortgages is very far from over. The purchases on 9/3 were not even even lots! like 10 insiders bought less than 1000 shares!!! I dont mind someone that has another opinion on something but don't lie and don't be a brainless tout cause people here are smarter than that.3-Sep-08 ADAMS DIANA Officer 16 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $1383-Sep-08 DEROSA PAUL RDirector 32 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $2763-Sep-08 DUFF PHILIP NDirector 41 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $3543-Sep-08 WALLIS DAVID WOfficer 468 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $4,0483-Sep-08 LEONARD SEAN TOfficer 62 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $5363-Sep-08 SHOBACK ROBERT GOfficer 66 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $5703-Sep-08 RENFIELD MILLER DOUGLAS COfficer 107 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $9253-Sep-08 UHLEIN JOHN WOfficer 85 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $7353-Sep-08 WALLACE HENRY D GDirector 44 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $3803-Sep-08 CALLEN MICHAEL AOfficer 53 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $4583-Sep-08 CONSIDINE JILL MDirector 49 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $4233-Sep-08 DOYLE KEVIN JOfficer 50 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $4323-Sep-08 BIENSTOCK GREGG LOfficer 58 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $5013-Sep-08 UNGER LAURA SDirector 126 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share. $1,0893-Sep-08 THEOBALD THOMAS CDirector 44 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $8.65 per share.
Finally a day this tanks and shorts cannot be blamed.
2.83! Longs are dead, at last. Gambling on junk, you deserve to lose.
The stock is worth 40 cents a share today. Reading these old bull posts is amusing.:)