ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

The Company is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecule drugs for the treatment of central nervous system disorders.

Recs

4
Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 11/23/2012 8:23:49 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.17 ACAD Score: -1,164.22

I was going to sit this one out, but then I remembered how much I regretted my decision not to red thumb Zalicus ahead of SYNERGY and I decided to go for it. The initial phase III trial of pimavanserin for Parkinson's psychosis failed in 2009 and the simultaneous phase III trial was canceled. I've heard all kinds of reasons why the current phase III trial will be successful (tweaking of clinical sites, entry criteria, study endpoints) but the fact is that most phase III redos fail. Pimavanserin wasn't even Acadia's first major failure - that came in 2008 with the termination of ACP-104 development for schizophrenia.

Even if I'm wrong and the phase III trial is a success, I could still escape this pick with a positive score as the market digests the reality that Acadia will have to run another phase III trial before approval, cash is low, the likelihood of heavy dilution is certain, and pimavanserin will still eventually have to compete with inexpensive generic antipsychotics. Regardless, I have only meaningless CAPS points to lose and all kinds of schadenfreude to gain.

Report this Post 6 Replies
Member Avatar BioPharmacist (< 20) Submitted: 11/24/2012 4:21:13 PM
Recs: 9

Ha! Truly pathetic and inaccurate on so many levels. First off, your primary reason of sitting this out is because most phase 3 redos fail. Truly absurd reasoning. How about a little more specific reasons? Your logic is based off grand generalizations and will shortly be proven wrong for this one.

Second, they have plenty cash on hand (over 20mil) and once this goes above $5 they can surely tap the extra $13mil in the ATM agreement. That would dilute a measly 2.6 million shares. Look at Arena, a float of 220 million! This managment did an excellent job of retaining shareholder value and not doing massive dilution and you think with good news massive dilution will occur. Pathetic.

Finally, the available generics carry a black box warning of increased death! I'm not sure who will be running to use those. I work as a consultant pharmacist and my job all day is getting dementia patients off those meds by recommending dose reductions to psychiatrists.

This trial will succeed and big pharma will come running. Antipsychotics are the biggest class of meds sold revenue wise in this country and around the world. You will be taught a less in bio trading next week, wait and see.

Member Avatar sidiling (96.56) Submitted: 11/26/2012 4:43:23 PM
Recs: 2

THIS WILL BE GOOD! *grabs popcorn

Member Avatar RandMcMoney (< 20) Submitted: 12/12/2012 6:20:32 PM
Recs: 2

Good call on giving ACAD a thumbs down...Up 13% today and 130% this year....Brilliant!!

Member Avatar BioPharmacist (< 20) Submitted: 12/14/2012 11:12:58 AM
Recs: 2

For real, he said they are cash low and should see heavy dilution. Well, they raised 86 million with a stock offering and the day they announced it the stock was up 13%! If people cant see the tremendous potential in this drug they should quit biotech investing all together.

Member Avatar OklaBoston (69.29) Submitted: 12/19/2012 5:13:24 AM
Recs: 0

The CFO sold his entire holding in November for an average price of $6.02. How in sin can that be interpreted as anything but bearish?

I ended an "Outperform" pick when I found that out.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 4/11/2013 11:17:39 AM
Recs: 2

Just shorted 1000 shares at 11.89.

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