Aixtron AG (ADR) (NASDAQ:AIXG)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company is a provider of deposition equipment to the semiconductor industry.

Recs

6
Player Avatar TMFUltraLong (99.95) Submitted: 10/12/2009 1:51:15 AM : Underperform Start Price: $30.57 AIXG Score: +11.11

Ladies and gentlmen, we have lift off of the space shuttle stupidia! I'm really not going to say much here other than...WHAT????!!!! Seriously... c'mon... $3 to $30.... seriously? 53 times 2010 earnings with revenue growth down in 2009... seriously? Straight up...no major down days...seriously? Will some please push this over the cliff or do I have to huff and puff and do it myself...

UltraLong

Report this Post 15 Replies
Member Avatar jamespeer (24.49) Submitted: 10/12/2009 10:14:30 AM
Recs: 0

My thoughts exactly, I'm bullish on semiconductors but this company at $30? I think not....

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 10/13/2009 12:42:29 AM
Recs: 0

I will write something about AIXG soon (actually I got here because I wanted to see what other people write about it).
WestLB (yes I know, who cares about WestLB, hehe) today raised its "target price" for Aixtron to 24.30 EUR (ca. 35.90 USD) from 17.80 EUR (ca. 26.30 EUR) and changed the rating from "add" to "buy" (yes, I know ...). They also raised their price target, the consensus estimate for EPS2010 is at ca. 0.53 EUR, giving it a consensus P/E of ca. 39, not 53.

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 10/13/2009 12:48:43 AM
Recs: 0

here are the revenue numbers in million EUR (rounded).
04 140.0
05 139.4
06 171.7
07 214.8
08 274.4
09e 250.0
10e 354.0

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 10/13/2009 12:54:17 AM
Recs: 0

my preliminary AIXG "pitch" (not all that much so far) is here -> http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/AIXG/4288455/aixtron-analyst-earnings-confe.aspx

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 10/13/2009 1:44:42 AM
Recs: 0

They also raised their price target, ...
-> They also raised their earnings estimate, ...

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 10/13/2009 2:08:18 AM
Recs: 0

actually I got here because I wanted to see what other people write about it
actually I got here because I wanted, before writing something myself, see what other people write about it

Member Avatar TMFUltraLong (99.95) Submitted: 10/13/2009 5:08:32 AM
Recs: 0

Portefeuille,

I want to beat it on its head with a stick =)

UltraLong

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 10/13/2009 7:41:57 AM
Recs: 0

a post on AIXG and other "LED stocks" is here -> http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=275666.

Member Avatar Anvil13 (< 20) Submitted: 10/13/2009 8:04:55 PM
Recs: 0

Right now I'm just riding the trend up and trail with a stop loss (adjusted daily).

The market often gets silly and 53:1 says they're all betting long. Usually not a good sign when too many people agree, but I'm content to ride in the back of the bus for now. I haven't had too much luck standing in front of it.

For now, I'll watch both sides of the argument and try to learn.

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 10/13/2009 9:20:47 PM
Recs: 0

10/13/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 16.50 EUR -> 26.00 EUR.
10/12/09 WestLB, "add" -> "buy", 17.80 EUR -> 24.30 EUR.
10/09/09 Merriman Curhan Ford, still "buy", rev10e 355 MEUR -> 420 MEUR, eps10e 0.48 EUR -> 0.60 EUR, rev11e 450 MEUR, eps11e 0.65 EUR.
09/30/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "sell", eps09e 0.22 EUR, still 11.00 EUR.
09/29/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 20.00 EUR -> 25.00 EUR.
09/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "sell".

Member Avatar peteefool (< 20) Submitted: 10/17/2009 8:48:02 AM
Recs: 1

Dear Ultralong,

The fact that PE is so high is tempered by the fact that almost all companies in this industry are bleeding ink right now and so have negative PE's ... the way you need to see this is that AIXG, to its credit, has managed to remain profitable even in this severe downturn. Semi-equipment is a highly cyclical industry so revenues being way down is not unusual ... they may be way up next year. The market is telling us that AIXG figures to be a big winner in the next up cycle.

I sold a third of my position in AIXG at around $16 on the theory it couldn't keep going up the way it had been and boy do I regret that! It doesn't pay to argue against such a strong tide.

This is a really long term play ... there could be a revolution in home lighting in the offing where we switch to LED lighting for ambient light. If that happens, $50 is going to be cheap for this stock.

Still long AIXG.
petee

Member Avatar FreeMortal (29.35) Submitted: 1/19/2010 9:50:39 PM
Recs: 0

I hold much respect for Portefeuille and I agree that LED technology is really going to take off. But at 83 times earnings, this stock is way too expensive for me.

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 5/16/2010 9:40:53 PM
Recs: 0

*** But at 83 times earnings ***
eps consensus estimates are currently at around 1.44 EUR for 2010 and 1.55 EUR for 2011. Aixtron (AIXA:GR) closed on 05/14/10 at 25.345 EUR. Current market capitalisation is around 2.54 billion EUR and "net cash" is a little over 300 million EUR (I think).

Member Avatar portefeuille (99.65) Submitted: 5/16/2010 9:44:28 PM
Recs: 0

the analysts on Aixtron.

05/04/10 HSBC, still "overweight", still 34.00 EUR.
05/03/10 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 36.00 EUR -> 39.00 EUR.
05/03/10 AC Research, "accumulate" -> "buy".
05/03/10 Independent Research, still "buy", 34.00 EUR -> 37.00 EUR.
05/03/10 UniCredit, "buy" -> "hold", eps10 1.21 EUR -> 1.57 EUR, eps11 1.71 EUR -> 1.78 EUR, 30.00 EUR -> 25.00 EUR.
04/30/10 UBS, still "buy", 31.00 EUR -> 32.00 EUR.
04/30/10 Canaccord Adams, "buy" -> "hold", 40.00 USD -> 26.00 USD.
04/29/10 Close Brothers Seydler, still "buy", still 35.00 EUR.
04/29/10 Hamburger Sparkasse, still "buy".
04/22/10 HSBC, still "overweight", 31.00 EUR -> 34.00 EUR.
04/22/10 Close Brothers Seydler, still "buy", eps10 1.20 EUR, eps11 1.87 EUR.
04/22/10 AC Research, still "accumulate".
04/21/10 Goldman Sachs, still "neutral", eps10 0.95 EUR -> 1.37 EUR, eps11 1.25 EUR -> 1.55 EUR.
04/12/10 J.P. Morgan Cazenove, still "overweight", still 30.00 EUR.
04/07/10 Independent Research, still "buy", 31.00 EUR -> 34.00 EUR.
04/01/10 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", still 36.00 EUR.
04/01/10 UBS, "buy", 31.00 EUR.
03/17/10 Piper Jaffray, still "underweight", 18.00 EUR -> 21.00 EUR.
03/17/10 UniCredit, still "buy", eps10 0.78 EUR -> 1.21 EUR, eps11 0.99 EUR -> 1.71 EUR, 25.00 EUR -> 30.00 EUR.
03/17/10 Credit Suisse, still "neutral", eps10 1.14 EUR -> 1.47 EUR, eps11 0.98 EUR -> 1.12 EUR.
03/15/10 WestLB, "add" -> "buy", 25.50 EUR -> 33.40 EUR.
03/12/10 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 30.00 EUR -> 36.00 EUR.
03/12/10 Cheuvreux, still "outperform", 32.00 EUR -> 39.00 EUR.
03/12/10 J.P. Morgan, still "overweight", 25.00 EUR -> 30.00 EUR.
03/11/10 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 20.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR.
03/11/10 Independent Research, still "buy", eps10 0.66 EUR -> 1.11 EUR, eps11 0.80 EUR -> 1.31 EUR, 28.50 EUR ->31.00 EUR.
03/10/10 Hamburger Sparkasse, still "buy", "will raise target by 15%".
03/09/10 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 28.00 EUR -> 30.00 EUR.
03/04/10 UniCredit, still "buy", still 25.00 EUR.
03/03/10 WestLB, still "add", eps10 0.35 EUR -> 0.43 EUR, eps11 0.58 EUR -> 0.63 EUR, eps12 0.78 EUR -> 0.85 EUR, 24.00 EUR -> 25.50 EUR.
02/22/10 Credit Suisse, still "neutral", 18.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR.
02/09/10 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "buy", eps10 0.40 EUR -> 0.75 EUR, eps11 0.49 EUR -> 0.93 EUR, 20.00 EUR -> 26.00 EUR,
02/08/10 HSBC, initiates with "overweight", 28.00 EUR, "no debt", "strong cash flow".
02/05/10 Lazard Capital initiates with "buy", 65.00 USD.
02/04/10 Merriman Curhan Ford, "buy" -> "neutral", eps09 0.37 EUR -> 0.46 EUR, eps10 0.85 EUR -> 1.05 EUR.
02/04/10 LB Baden-Württemberg, still "sell", still 18.00 EUR.
02/04/10 Independent Research, "hold" -> "buy", eps10 0.48 EUR -> 0.66 EUR, eps11 0.55 EUR -> 0.80 EUR, 26.00 EUR -> 28.50 EUR.
02/04/10 Hamburger Sparkasse, "still buy".
02/03/10 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 19.00 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.
02/03/10 equinet, still "buy".
01/13/10 Goldman Sachs, still "neutral", still 25.00 EUR.
01/11/10 J.P. Morgan, still "overweight", still 25.00 EUR.
12/22/09 AC Research, still "accumulate".
12/14/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", still 28.00 EUR.
11/11/09 WestLB, "buy" -> "add", 24.30 -> 24.00.10/30/09 WGZ Bank, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR.
10/30/09 Exane BNP Paribas, "neutral" -> "outperform", 12.30 EUR -> 27.00.
10/30/09 Independent Research, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR, 24.00 EUR.
10/30/09 equinet, "accumulate" -> "buy", 25.00 EUR -> 24.00 EUR.
10/30/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 25.00 EUR.
10/29/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "sell" -> "hold", eps09e 0.22 EUR -> 0.38 EUR, eps10 0.30 EUR -> 0.40 EUR, 9.90 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.
10/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "buy".
10/29/09 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 18.40 EUR.
10/29/09 UniCredit, "hold" -> "buy", eps10 0.53 EUR -> 0.72 EUR, eps11 0.70 EUR -> 0.90 EUR, 16.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR.
10/29/09 SES Research, still "hold", 10.00 EUR -> 17.50 EUR.
10/29/09 equinet AG, still "accumulate", 25.00 EUR.
10/29/09 WestLB, still "buy", 24.30 EUR.
10/13/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 16.50 EUR -> 26.00 EUR.
10/12/09 WestLB, "add" -> "buy", 17.80 EUR -> 24.30 EUR.
10/09/09 Merriman Curhan Ford, still "buy", rev10 355 MEUR -> 420 MEUR, eps10 0.48 EUR -> 0.60 EUR, rev11 450 MEUR, eps11 0.65 EUR.
09/30/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "sell", eps09e 0.22 EUR, still 11.00 EUR.
09/29/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 20.00 EUR -> 25.00 EUR.
09/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "sell".
08/18/09 WGZ Bank, "reduce" -> "accumulate", 11.50 EUR -> 14.00 EUR.
05/07/09 UniCredit, "hold" -> "buy", 4.00 EUR -> 8.00 EUR.

Member Avatar irvingfisher (33.51) Submitted: 9/22/2010 9:46:10 PM
Recs: 0

BTW, on sept 22, 2010. P/E based on TTM earnings was 19.06. Pretty good for a growth stock.

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