Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE:APC)

TrojanFan (90.68) Submitted: 7/14/2010 6:33:31 PM : Start Price: $47.47 APC Score: -12.41

I suspect that Representative Ed Markey's ammendment today (which was approved by the way) to make renegotiation of old federal leases a pre-condition of bidding new leases will gain traction and will disproportionately harm APC.Call it speculative at this point, but I have a strong sense that the provisions of this ammendment are likely to be applied retroactively.The cost will total well into the billions and it will effectively be a one-time wind fall tax. Operators will have the choice of either paying the fine or getting permanently locked out of the Gulf waters for perpetuity. I think they'll pony up and pay the tax.That's one ambitious ultimatum, but I think Gulf area voters will embrace the idea as will federal budget hawks. Nothin' like a good old fashioned shake down. In this case, I actually think it's called for, though. In hindsight, the circumstances and terms under which these leases were granted and their unfairness relative to all other leases on the books are pretty egregious. I think the zero royalty leases are going to get rolled back across the board and that's really going to hurt this stock.The mere prospect of this is certainly going to weigh heavily on the minds of the larger shareholders in this company beginning like tomorrow, and that's going to be terrible for the sentiment around the stock going forward.Balancing the budget requires taking away from somebody, though. If the administration doesn't have the mandate to compel them to contribute to the BP damages fund, they'll be sure to get their pound of flesh some other way. This is beginning to look like their preferred medium of choice.