Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and commercializing oral drugs in four major therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, central nervous system, inflammatory and metabolic diseases.

Recs

9
Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 5/3/2012 1:42:04 AM : Underperform Start Price: $2.64 ARNA Score: -14.18

Tensions are running high ahead of the May 10 Advisory Committee meeting, and I consider the eventual vote a toss up. In September 2010 the committee voted 9 to 5 against approval, but the company may have successfully answered the committee's concerns regarding the potential carcinogenicity of lorcaserin.

I've decided to take a CAPS gamble against lorcaserin at this late date for two reasons. One is that while the actual meeting doesn't take place until May 10, the FDA will release briefing documents on May 8. I think while the committee vote is a toss-up, the briefing documents are much more likely to be negative and drive the share price downward. Hopefully, I'll be able to terminate my pick with a winning score before the open on May 10. Of course, given the way CAPS has been acting lately, I may have cut things too close.

The second reason is that I want to be on Feuerstein's side of this call. While his detractors endlessly point to the same incorrect or partially incorrect calls (mainly Dendreon and Human Genomic Sciences) after years have passed, Feuerstein has continued make confident predictions the vast majority of which prove to be accurate. Some recent beauties are the abject failure and impending bankruptcy of Radient Pharmaceuticals, the downward trajectory of Biosante, and of course the negative result of the phase III trial of perifosine for Keryx and Aeterna Zentaris. I didn't have the nerve to hold my red thumbs through that last catalyst, to my consummate regret.

I've considered generating a new passive CAPS profile that pitches with Feuerstein and Gekkowire, and pitches against the Axis of Evil (Garza, VFC etc.) but I'm not sure I can handle the extra work. Also, the Fool seems to be comatose on the job with CAPS so I'm not really about to invest more time and energy here. Perhaps if more time gets freed up in the future, who knows.

Report this Post 5 Replies
Member Avatar Momentum21 (82.23) Submitted: 5/9/2012 9:23:46 PM
Recs: 0

c'mon zz...Adam is at his best when going head to head with Garza but I think he is going to come up short on his obsession with ARNA. He is running headlong into a national awakening about obesity.

Lorcaserin is not the answer of course but we always want to pursue a silver bullet and this one is as good as any I think.

Areniacs will prevail!! : )

Member Avatar Momentum21 (82.23) Submitted: 5/9/2012 9:26:27 PM
Recs: 1

I am also saddened that you are content with merely "wanting to be on AF's side of the call." Have you thrown in the towel of trying to make money at GBMB?

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 5/13/2012 1:25:32 AM
Recs: 2

My GBMB buys and sells are still documented in my pitches and pitch replies. I believe I am still the only CAPS player who documents his actual transactions on a same-day basis so that his overall track record can be freely examined.

Member Avatar jumbofaceplate (33.43) Submitted: 5/23/2012 10:21:16 AM
Recs: 0

You have stated previously that investing on the "thesis" of FDA approval is a gamble. Let's say that you are a gambling man...

Member Avatar tusnialr (37.11) Submitted: 7/13/2012 5:23:17 AM
Recs: 0

Still, for investors with a medium to long term, this ARNA is a very good value stock. For daily players, yes, each day's news matters. At each bearish-dip, an excellent stock to pick up for Long-Termers..!!

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