Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 1/29/2013 6:16:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $18.18 AUXL Score: +11.30

I keep toying with the idea of buying Auxilium and I'm always glad I didn't. The company rode testosterone supplement Testim to huge gains in the middle part of the last decade and navigated the financial crisis without too much damage. Over the last few years, the stock has lost its luster over concerns of generic competition for Testim and the apparent weakness of Xiaflex as a successor.

This year, the share price did spike nicely from the current level on some optimism on Xiaflex but the momentum was not sustained in the context of more weak revenue numbers for Testim and Xiaflex. I had to close my prior outperform with a large negative score but I'm willing to give it another stab at this level. I think the most likely source of a rebound is positive sentiment regarding the new indication of Xiaflex for cellulite.

Live by the sword and die by the sword. I'm cocky regarding the stocks I've done well with, so I try to be humble regarding the ones that have kicked my ass. I'd say I'm only 60% likely to close this pick with a positive score, so this might be one of the ZZ picks to ignore.

Report this Post 3 Replies
Member Avatar awallejr (77.22) Submitted: 1/30/2013 7:39:06 PM
Recs: 0

Well I am not sure how accurate TMF's earnings projections are but this stock went from losing .69 p/s in 2011, making $1.30 p/s in 2012 and projecting to only make .09 p/s in 2013.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 1/30/2013 11:52:47 PM
Recs: 1

Earnings are not a very reliable or consistent way to follow developmental biotechs since higher earnings may simply indicate a lack of commitment to research and growth. Stocks like Auxilium are best traded short-term based on evaluation of market sentiment, or not traded at all.

Member Avatar Rick11129 (< 20) Submitted: 1/31/2013 6:14:05 PM
Recs: 0

The CEO is Adrian Adams . I made a bundle with him when he was at KOS. He bought 56,000 shares of auxl in dec 2012. I am gonna ride with him!

Rick 11129

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