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The Company is an intermediate gold producer engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and operation of mineral properties in Brazil, Argentina, Honduras and Nicaragua.
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Claudio1d (< 20) Submitted: 6/21/07 1:51 PM : Start Price: $12.66 AUY Score: -1.13
Hmmm! Interesting analysis from all the outperform gamblers. Lets see, AUY has NO P/E, and for the past 3 years this stock has ran-up from a low of $1.65 a share and an average buy-in at around $2 to a high of $15.44 (02-23-07) and it will be near cloud #9 by next year as one outperform caps member said in his AUY call? lolIn the past 3 years, AUY has gained over 900 %, while average volume has changed from an average of 100,000 shares traded daily (June 2004) to well over 12 million at AUY's high above $15?I think his cloud #9 would have to wait for a while since the biggest selling volume in this stock has occured between Feb-March, 2007 and money-flow has been declining steadily ever since.Current daily volume runs at around 6 million shares traded daily.While there's no denying that gold will eventually go higher in the very long term, that cloud #9 gold scenario will have to take a breather for a while and AUY fill around 6 lower GAPS.Since AUY was gapped-down from a closing price of $15.37 (02-26-07) and an open the following day at $14.78 (02-27-07) on triple normal running volume for February, 2007., with money flow dropping ever since, it would be fair to assume that AUY is headed towards filling those lower gaps dating back to 2005.Lower gaps that should fill this year are at $12.77 (06-14-2007), $12.19 (01-22-07), $9.92 (10-30-06) and $8.75 (10-12-06) with 2 more remaining. One is at $6.22 (12-23-05) and the other is at $2.95 (05-26-05).Will these gaps fill? They should. The stock market is a human created game in which most things are planned in advance, manipulated, speculated, pumped and dumped., etc.While I won't bet my life on my current analysis, I would surely bet against AUY for at least 1 year.Long term Gold prices look promising with bumps along the way, but AUY prospects short-mid term would surely put the stock price where it belongs. And that would be around $7.Good luck to all and good luck to the caps player that's waiting for his $1000/ounce of gold for 2008. :P
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dwot (99.99) Submitted: 6/28/07 5:02 PM
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I've been looking closer since the merger was announced. All I can say is yuck to this one...
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Claudio1d (< 20) Submitted: 6/30/07 7:08 PM
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It's not yuck. It's just the time for the stock to calm down.Checking the charts, P/E, technicals, where it's gone from and how high it went, over 900 % gain in 3 years, and 6 gaps in the stock price would surely add-up to a drop in stock price, and not the opposite like all the other cheerleaders are doing. lol
dwot (99.99) Submitted: 7/26/07 5:25 PM
The grade they hold is exceptionally poor and not likely to be profitable. They are yuck.http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=12619&t=01004034443672390362
RandomGuy123 (54.73) Submitted: 8/10/07 12:38 PM
That analysis is for GG.... AUY is one of the best gold miners with one of the best CEO's. Here's a synopsis that I wrote on superiorinvestor.net a few days ago: AUY is a Canadian gold and copper producer with properties in Brazil, Honduras, and Argentina. They have four operating mines in Brazil (including one that just came online late last year), and four in development, with one operating mine each in Honduras and Argentina. Like Rob McEwen, the CEO of Yamana, Peter Marrone, is seen as a dynamic leader, capable of building a mining company from the ground up in a rapid fashion. So far, he has done a great job, as AUY's production has greatly accelerated and it's shares have appreciated 450% in the last three years. AUY's target production is 1,000,000 oz in 2008, and they appear to be on track to attain that goal. To put that into perspective, they produced 314,000 oz last year, and this year to date, they have produced 236,000 oz. They use their copper proceeds to fund their gold mining, at least that's how I understand it - So they can produce gold at a much lower price than the average miner. AUY is small enough, right now, that they still have significant growth potential - But it is large and well diversified enough so as to be a relatively safe investment. It's been beaten down because of a combined correction after a nearly 90% increase in 8 months combined with a very dilutive merger/acquisition. That was a couple months ago, however, and, it seems to be bouncing off support at $10. That, combined with the fact that it's a stellar company is why I think it's a screaming buy.
Claudio1d (< 20) Submitted: 8/10/07 2:23 PM
Screaming buy? What do you think? That this stock goes up in a straight line? lmaoSure it's a screaming buy, I agree. But not at this price. lolRight now, there's talk about Gold being accumulated and that it will go higher in the near future.Well, I agree 100 %, but if I was Wall Street, I would want to own anything Gold, BUT, at a CHEAPER PRICE.Take, for example, companies that announce stock buybacks. What happens then? Positive news pushes their stocks up temporarily and then? They are being pushed lower by the market makers and timed stock sales.Why? So that BIG MONEY (Wall Street) can buy cheaper with the knowing that their low entry points will make them money 100 % in the long run.With all this said, I would look at AUY, but at around $6 or $7. And it's coming... :)Fyi: $8.50 by the end of October. :)Claudio.
JohnLamb999 (75.50) Submitted: 9/21/07 5:33 PM
Hi Claudio1d After reading your post I looked further and found to my dismay that AUY is one of the most or the most pricey gold miner out there (check the PEG's for example). So I dumped my real shares in favor of another cheaper gold producer. Outside of AUY though I wonder how you now feel about $1000 and ounce for gold?
Claudio1d (< 20) Submitted: 10/09/07 1:48 AM
Sorry John for replying back so late. I haven't been around here for at least a month...I'll have to agree with your gold price prediction. Although gold is going higher, it will not hit $1000 an ounce in 2008. Make that 2009. :)I don't follow stocks that deal with gold producers. What I follow is markets and technicals.To be honest, I would buy gold ETF's instead of dealing with individual gold miners and/or producers.Since there's no money being made in real estate, like a few years back, I would assume that smart/big money is being pumped back into the stock market, oil and precious metals.Gold should hit around $1040 an ounce off its low of $260.400% gain for gold in roughly 8-9 years is not bad at all considering the real estate markets, oil and commodoties stealing gigantic profits from precious metals.Precious metals are the kings of the hill now.I spoke about AUY a few months back and predicted that it will hit $8.50 by the end of October, 2007.Well? It happened sooner than I thought, although AUY DID go to $8.50, but around the end of August, 2007.I haven't been checking stocks lately since I'm all in on JAVA from $4.90, but I'll do some research on others and figure out some plays either on the buy/short/option sides.I appreciate your post and hope to hear from you soon. Thanks.Claudio.
Razorfool100 (< 20) Submitted: 1/12/08 1:05 AM
Um....Um...Um...Actually you wrote a great analysis but here we are with gold headed to $1000 and quite possibly higher. I appreciate learning from great players such as yourself.
nitrovic (67.45) Submitted: 1/14/08 11:11 PM
yep, i do believe the wait to $1000 is almost here....Good buy then, good buy now.
RandomGuy123 (54.73) Submitted: 2/06/08 11:01 PM
It was indeed a screaming buy, it is still a buy now (not really a screaming one any more though), and it will continue to be a buy as long as major central banks around the globe are lowering rates and Marrone is at the helm.
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