AVI BioPharma, Inc. (AVII)

PiedMoose (34.12) Submitted: 12/04/06 4:15 PM

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Today's announcement regarding 28M in financing from the Defense Department to research treatments for Ebola, Marburg and Junin hemorrhagic viruses speaks well to the faith that the Defense Department has in AVI technology.

I believe that the general lack of faith in the technology is the primary reason the stock price languishes.

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RainerWysocki (< 20) Submitted: 4/23/07 4:26 PM

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Mid March 2007 AVII announced 2006 revenues of $115,291, with a loss of $31 million, or 59 cents per share, compared with revenue of $4.8 million, with a loss of $16.6 million, or 37 cents per share, a year earlier.

The losses for the fourth quarter of 2006 were also about double the losses in the same quarter of 2005. For 2006 Q4, AVI had revenue of $17,519, with a loss of $8.3 million, or 16 cents per share, compared with 2005 Q4 revenue of $1.4 million, with a loss of $4.5 million, or 10 cents per share.

These figures don't look like those of a company I should make a solid investment in.

End of March their CEO, D. Burger left... AVII is still looking for replacement. In the meantime, K. Forrest, an independant director acts as interim CEO. Immediate reaction of the market, the price went up from under USD 2.50 to over USD 3...

I initially bought the stock at over USD 6 last year, recently I bought more at USD 2.60... My worst move? So far yes.

Pitty is the don't seem to have major partners so far. Check it out on their website.
When looking at their pipeline I get scared again, there is only one neugene technology with Phase II completed and Phase III planned (Resten-NG). Nothin seems to move. I understand that phase III developments are expensive and without major partners in view they depend solely on the Defense Department. Good enough?

For the patient ones, the long term investors and believers I guess, when and if phase III succesfully completes it opens to a USD 4 Billion market for Resten-NG. There are others in the pipeline for over 10 Billion but now we are talking really long term.

How can I sell now...

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PiedMoose (34.12) Submitted: 4/23/07 10:39 PM

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AVII is certainly a gamble, but one that I believe will pay off. Burger was essentially kicked out because of non-performance. They must partner at some point in the near future, and I think that is more likely to happen once a new CEO is in place.

I believe that in the long term an investment at these prices will pay off.

AVII share price has a history of quick run-ups followed by a "return to earth" behavior. These run-ups, are the result of speculation on near-term news, and are likely to happen again.

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Arpeggio4u (71.58) Submitted: 8/09/07 11:38 AM

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AVII today dropped it's hepatitis C phase I trial, likely as it was ineffective at the higher doses required, an indication that the hepatitis C disease model is not well understood. This would make the manufacture of specific templates ineffectual (what AVII does). The had spent money acquiring science to measure the effectiveness of their compound in the Hepatitis C model...likely convincing them that it would take much higher doses or a remanufacture of their compound to produce easier entry, higher affinity or different target zones to inhibit viral C replication.

Cook catheter, looks like the next available source of good study information to validate this new drug model. Bare metal stents vs DES (drug eluding stents) are much cheaper and there is a direct source of income that could be tapped into. I don't see studies coming out any sooner than 1 to 2 years, regards this.

Duchennes Muscular Dystropy, using ESPRIT\Neusense technology is developing momentum and, if successful, would be a huge shot in the arm for this technology. The study design should offer some interesting muscle biopsy findings, that might give the stock a small short term shot in the arm. This study, if positive, could be available within a year. Larger studies, will be required to determine clinical efficacy.

Regards defense spending, Ebola virus, H5N1 etc, this is tenuous at best, works somewhat in Vivo (test tube or petri dish), but a long way from demonstrating any clinical efficacy, short of some small volume monkey studies.

All in all, it would appear that there is still 2-5 years before a viable income stream may be available for this company.

Before the credit crunch, and even perhaps now, I would have thought this company presented a buyout opportunity, likely from Barclay's, a large supporter, but may be even too speculative for it to stomach. One of the other larger drug companies looking to gain a foothold in this research, with bigger pockets and a medium term outlook may be a likely candidate.

The good news...if there is any...given the current market mood, it likely offers less downside risk, than the market in general. If you are a gambler, accumulating this stock, in anticipation of favorable clinical information from Cook on the bare metal stent option and Duscheenes Muscular Dystrophy could give this stock a considerable kick; time frame about 8-12 months.

All in all, the Hepatitis C failure is a disappointment. They did try to muzzle this in the recent press release.

On th positive, side, the invovlement of Cook Catheter and its research cababilites as well as the English reaserachers and their experience in Duscheenes will help alleviate the previous scattered and myopic approach by their board and clinical people.

Adult onset PKD, poly cystic kidney disease, is a huge potential resource stream with a well developed understanding of potential target sites that is NOT being developed, albeit not quite as proximal as stents and muscuclar dystrophy. Mayo clinic has an excellent research facillity on this disease. It would seem this would be a good relationship opportunity for them. The market is HUGE!! A 100,000 K research grant form the PKD foundation was swallowed up by these guys with nary a few paragraphs from the company regards any science.

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