Abraxas Petroleum Corp. (NASDAQ:AXAS)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

An energy company engaged in the exploration of and the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas primarily along the Texas Gulf Coast, in the Permian Basin of western Texas and in Wyoming.

Recs

3
Player Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 9/15/2010 2:26:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.82 AXAS Score: -22.12

Actually in at $1.90.

This is a good one to keep an eye on. Even at the current price it is selling at about a 40% discount.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Report this Post 22 Replies
Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 10/9/2010 11:58:34 PM
Recs: 1

Up almost 60% in real life.

Undervalued almost 50% at current price of $3.03.

Should have several new wells producing by end of 2010, or early 2011.

They paid down debt by $10M during 2010.

Expect to pay down more from sell of non-core assets in 2011.

Cap Ex for 2010 set at about $30M.

They have moved from being a Gas E & P company to about 50% Oil and 50% Gas.

50% Institutional and 10% Insider ownership.

Significant free cash flow.

Good potential for significant future growth.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 11/6/2010 9:42:06 AM
Recs: 1

Now up 81%.

Will be adding to my position in AXAS.

I see a longer term upside of 800% to 1000% even at the current price of $3.44.

May be some down fluctuations from this price, but they will be temporary and due to things not directly related to what AXAS itself is doing.

They are in all the right places at the right time.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 11/10/2010 6:35:39 PM
Recs: 1

Up 118% as of today. Tempted to take some profit, but probably won't. I believe there is still a huge upside from here.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 1/6/2011 6:54:57 PM
Recs: 0

Took a little profit but still have most of my position.

Operational update shows some great things happening in 1st half of 2011.

This recent up and down has to do with the former MLP shares being sold. When Abraxas Partners was combined with Abraxas Petroleum, the partners got some cash, and some stock. The stock had limits on how much could be sold and when. This all came about because they were going to do an IPO on the partnership in early 2009, but when the bottom dropped out of the economy, it fell through. That is when the MLP was combined with Abraxas Petroleum, which had owned about half of the partnership.

This up and down will become less volatile as the "locked up" shares are no longer a part of the equation, then we should see a steady upward movement (with of course, the occasional profit taking fluctuation).

I would not be surprised to see it double by the end of 2011, and then keep climbing.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 1/27/2011 12:55:01 PM
Recs: 0

Watch for movement next week.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 1/27/2011 1:03:40 PM
Recs: 0

SmartMoney appears to not be very smart. They are showing the share offering as an IPO, and said Abraxas was the first (or one of the first) to go public this year, and would be listed on the NASDAQ.

This makes me wonder whether even looking at SmartMoney is worthwhile.

They don't seem to know anything about this company.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 2/1/2011 4:30:30 PM
Recs: 0

They have closed out the offering and will now have the cash needed to show what they can do.

The article said they netted $62M, but not sure if they sold the over allotment for more than the offering price, or if the article included the 8M+ shares the former Abraxas Partners owned, in that calculation. AXAS gets nothing for those shares, but it does finally get that resolved.

Will be interesting to see what happens.

The north is frozen and the drilling and "fracting" costs are too high right now for that area, but they still have a lot to work with in Texas.

They said they were raising their CAPEX to $60M for this year.

I think they will pay down their debt, and then borrow as needed.

They may also look to sell off some more non core assets, and possibly do more JV's.

Don't overlook the one they have now. It is worth a lot of money.

Don't want to "oversell", but this one is a winner big time.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 2/20/2011 12:18:59 PM
Recs: 0

Currently up 182% in Real Life. Am in at $1.90. Closed and re-opened in CAPS by accident.

Good long term investment. Hasn't shot up as much as some others in its sector, so still time to get in.

If you are not sure, you might want to take a "partial" position, and wait for the 1st and 2nd quarter results. You might miss out on some appreciation, but it still has a long way to go.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 3/17/2011 1:26:13 PM
Recs: 0

When everyone gets a chance to understand that what their year end 2010 financial's are showing is very different from where they are right now, this will go up.

Their have been significant changes since the first of the year.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 3/19/2011 11:36:46 AM
Recs: 0

Based on what has been happening since the first of the year, I see a good chance for a realistic 30% to 40% upside withing the next 90 days.

Even thought the 2010 year end financials did not look particularly good, they were not as bad as they appear at first glance, because accounting for O and G is not quite the same as for other companies.

Even if they were as they appeared, the Q1 and Q2 financials will look much different.

There have been a lot of changes in the first quarter, including raising capital and paying down debt, as well as new wells coming on line.

At the very least, I see a 100% upside for AXAS within the next 12 to 18 months, even from yesterdays closing price of $4.68.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 5/14/2011 6:09:55 PM
Recs: 0

The stock is being played with. Take advantage of this if you are into small oil companies. This one is a winner.

I am adding to my position on dips.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 6/8/2011 4:47:06 PM
Recs: 0

Take advantage of this "short activity" to take a position at a good price.

They won't stay around forever.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 7/1/2011 4:05:31 PM
Recs: 0

They have finally issued an operational update and information about a new credit facility on their website. . The 2nd half should be very good.

http://www.abraxaspetroleum.com/investorrelations/irframeset.htm

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 8/7/2011 12:18:09 PM
Recs: 0

When the "dust settles" you will wish you had bought some.

Nothing has happened with this company to justify the drop ( probably true for most stocks in this market), but from here, this one has a very reasonable and realistic upside of 200% to 300%.

Of course, I am speaking from a vary safe position of a "real life" profit of 91%, even after the drop.

Actually in at $1.90.

At one point this year, I was up over 200%. I was unwilling to sell it at that price.

They will be reporting on the 10th.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 9/29/2011 11:03:31 AM
Recs: 0

What a great buying opportunity for those who are still waiting.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 9/30/2011 10:59:44 AM
Recs: 0

A good opportunity to take advantage of the shorts who are trading and not investing.

At least take a small position and add on the "trading dips".

This will be at least a 4 bagger in the next 3 years.

This company should be valued based on proven and probable reserves, and their current activity, and not on "financial fundamentals".

They are not the same company they were a year ago.

They have a "built in floor" based on their "hedges".

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 12/19/2011 7:52:08 PM
Recs: 0

I will probably be adding to my position in AXAS.

It is still well above my actual price, and adding will raise that up some, but this is not one I am going to pass up.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 12/28/2011 6:30:56 PM
Recs: 0

My start price is now up to $2.60 because I bought a lot more.

I guess I should have done this back in early October when the market was doing a "schitzo run" and it actually got down below my old start price of $1.90 for a very short period of time, but I was too busy taking advantage of other buying opportunities.

This is just about the value of their "proven" reserves as of their last quarterly report, and about 25% of their "probable" reserves.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 1/13/2012 4:15:41 PM
Recs: 0

Bought some more, now in at $2.66.

Have about 80% of what I want my longer term hold position to be, but will likely wait for an even more "schitzo" day to finish it out.

I expect an eventual upside of at least 300% from here.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 2/1/2012 4:21:09 PM
Recs: 0

Be sure to check out their presentation tomorrow.

I believe they will have a "surprise" production level for the year end.

If they don't talk about it then, they will cover it in their Q4 report.

I expect them to have ended the year with production worth $150M in annual revenues, at the $75 per barrell price.

Remember, while there are short traders playing with this, 75% of their stock is owned by institutions and insiders.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 3/6/2012 3:45:32 PM
Recs: 0

Here is a Business Wire link to an article on Yahoo Financial concerning a news release by AXAS showing an increase of 45% in their year end proven reserves for 2011 over 2010.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/abraxas-announces-2011-end-reserves-182000421.html

This will just get better over time.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Member Avatar Teacherman1 (57.58) Submitted: 3/16/2012 3:04:29 PM
Recs: 0

Nice dip, bought some more.

You won't be able to really appreciate this company until after the Q2 report.

Will look totally different then.

Lots of shorts here all the time, but they used the reporting mix up to drive it down even further.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

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