Brookfield Homes Corp (BHS)

dexion10 (84.79) Submitted: 9/08/07 12:03 AM

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My contacts who've spoken with the CEO Ian Crockwell found the CEO to be a bit promotional and frankly they left feeling that the insiders weren't straight shooters... Ian Crockwell the CEO is also one of the worst insider buyers over the past 3 years according to www.InsiderScore.com. His performance ranks him in the bottom 5% of all insider buyers over the past three years.

You need more than blind hope to make money here. See my earlier post 60% of the homes BHS sales are in California - meaning they require Jumbo loans which are currently difficult to get and carry 7.5% to 9% interest rates... in the near term the pricing pressure for BHS will be horrible.

Ultimately the California market will stabilize and BHS will likely survive in my opinion - but this stock will not likely outperform the market over the next few months... I'm nearly positive about that.

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Madmykl (98.92) Submitted: 9/14/07 3:56 PM

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I need more than blind hope to make money here? thus far this year on my real investments I'm ranking well more than 100% return, and in caps i'm in the top 1%... blind hope isn't exactly the key to my success.

look at the finance.yahoo stats...
16% profitability, 35+% RoE, positive net income, minimally negative operating cashflow, price to sales <1, price to book value ~1, 9% held by insiders with recent insider buying, 20% short float.

to me the overall picture is bullish in a beat down industry which is a strong buy signal. If what you say about the CEO's investing track record is true (which sounds like second hand information), then his recent insider buys dont really help us understand the stock any better. Regardless, the picture remains bullish (at least for the present).

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HatchingPlans (99.89) Submitted: 10/02/07 8:44 AM

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blind hope? sounds like noob talk to me. one of those catch phrases slung around by those guys who pretend they know it all, but somehow loses all his money in the stock market anyway.

you made the right call, although it was a little early. stick to your guns man - it'll start correcting soon.

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dexion10 (84.79) Submitted: 10/11/07 3:35 PM

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Good luck to you both - I was an Allstar before my mortgage bets blew up (TMA LUM KFN) and they had insider buying and management said they'd be fine ... remember Luminent said the dividend was safe before they came back a week later to say it was cancelled.

I'm no Noob I've been around the buy-side for some time my friends so fare the well.

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Madmykl (98.92) Submitted: 10/21/07 2:22 AM

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Well I appreciate your input, and I'm sorry you got burned. Nothing is certain in this business and its always nice to have more info (even if it IS second hand info).

I still go by the numbers. The real question is whether these guys are going out of business, and like you I dont think they are. While in the near term their price may not go anywhere (or even down), if they survive their 5+ year outlook should well outperform the market.

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