Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK-B)

tcampbellla (91.62) Submitted: 5/14/07 3:36 PM

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No, I can't.
Why do you think Berkshire won't beat the market?

Tom

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Greshm (99.76) Submitted: 5/18/07 2:16 PM

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1. I believe we are in a secular bear market and very near the end of a cyclical bull rally against the primary trend which is down;

2. Investors are complacent and, once again, overly enthusiastic and speculative;

3. Most importantly, I believe investors are paying a price premium for Warren Buffet's management and he is working his way out the door. Some of that premium will leave with him. Very slowly of course;

4. I believe this market today is somewhat like the ~1969 through ~1972 period. Mr. Buffett ran an investment fund during the 1960's (I think he actually began that in the ' 50's?). In 1969 he disbanded that fund and returned the cash to the investors telling them he saw no values in the market justifying continuation of the fund. It was a great market timing call on his part. His general market comments these past few years are, I think, somewhat similarly to how he may have felt in 1969 I wonder?

5. Yes, admitedly, even if he has continued Berkshire's operations into a market environment in which he might rather have repeated his famed 1969 call, BRK might still be expected to outperform the S&P. But, if HE is also retiring and there is a price premium built-into BRK's price, in a bear market, I think those factors will work against BRK even if just judge relative to the S&P;

6. Finally and frankly, even if I am wrong in my pick, BRK is not going to massively outperform the S&P anyways so it is a low-risk pick for me even if incorrect. Yes, it would therefore be logical to conclude that if I can manage to achieve a 5 to 10 point positive score on this pick, I might end the pick to take my small gain--and the satisfaction of having "beaten the oracle of Omaha"--and run!

Greshm

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zztopless (< 20) Submitted: 8/09/07 10:57 PM

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point taken, however brk has beaten the s&p year to date

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withoutlimits (87.56) Submitted: 11/23/07 11:57 AM

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Yeah, BIG TIME!!!!

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TheHarm (22.95) Submitted: 12/09/07 3:40 AM

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You nailed this one, just like you nailed DRYS...

Buffet will be with this company until he dies, and do you honestly think when he leaves he will leave the company to some buffoon? This stock will outperform the S&P merely by name alone, people buy what it buys thus driving the price up continually.

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shivajik1234 (63.24) Submitted: 4/30/08 2:52 PM

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You are right on. BRK beat S&P by several points since you recommended. I'll ask my advisor tol look into all your recs.
Thanks you for your insight.

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