Player Avatar Catt99 (60.13) Submitted: 2/11/2009 12:07:24 AM : Underperform Start Price: $6.58 CLNE Score: +119.84

Surprised by the esteem with which CLNE is held at CAPS. Pickens and Pelosi and "clean energy" plays understood. But mgmt is gambling big with government subsidy business model. Really needs lots of cash to continue to grow and the stock price is dependent on rapid growth - I don't believe the actual growth prospects map to growth expectations that bulls assign to the company.

CLNE's last capital raise involved tremendous dilution to investors, and that was before the crashes of late 2008 and their impact on businesses seeking capital. CLNE needs to raise cash in the very near term (or not grow and become a business valued an order magnitude below its curent market cap), and I expect, if CLNE is able to raise cash, it will be at a tremendously dilutive cost to current investors (with another unit offering consisting of shares at a discount to market and warrants with significant price protection). Huge current overhang of stock-equivalnets if the stock recovers significantly; I believe that overhang will be materially increased in the next capital raise.

But the board and mgmt are very well paid (equity and cash)! Particualrly Pickens who gets large equity grants for service ('cause his majority ownership interest apparently doesn't provide enough incentive to devote attention to the business). I believe serious pain for current shareholders looms.

Disclosure: No current real money position, but I keep looking for opportunities to take an effective short position. Neither shorting outright nor option plays present themselves to those unwilling to take on very significant positions and risk, and to commit significant capital.

Report this Post 4 Replies
Member Avatar hhoopnholler (< 20) Submitted: 4/17/2009 1:24:31 PM
Recs: 0

Are you really sure you want to stick with this statement???

Member Avatar devoish (97.21) Submitted: 6/1/2009 6:06:07 PM
Recs: 1

Nice pitch, one rec from me. The debt is very high here, the dilution is very possible. Pickens is wealthy, it does not mean his companies shareholders are. Your pitch should have many more recs. Years ago Jiffy Lube was created as a way for Pennzoil to increase motor oil sales. CLNE is similar to that model, I believe.

Member Avatar Catt99 (60.13) Submitted: 8/14/2009 11:55:42 PM
Recs: 0

I'm on the wrong end on this one at this point (8/14) and surprised that CLNE was able to raise money on terms better than I could have imagined (but good on them). Still bearish and still think CLNE is really over-valued at $10+ at this point. Comment added to disclose that I was able to, and did, take a real-money short position after the recent run-up.

Member Avatar ravens9111 (52.07) Submitted: 4/7/2011 2:46:40 AM
Recs: 3

Not sure what you think will happen when the Nat Gas Act of 2011 is passed and new cars will soon be built to run on natural gas? Electric vehicles are great in theory, but unfortunately they are not feasible with high production cost and inferior battery technology. As crude continues its climb, natural gas will be what saves the economy in the long run. Energy independence can finally come through with natural gas as a viable and realistic alternative to oil. Cut our oil imports and begin exporting our LNG to other countries. What do you think that will do to our trade deficit? We could do a complete 180 when this passes. No more reliance on the Middle East for our energy. Instead, we will be the Middle East of LNG. I like that potential and it is worth the risk. Although CLNE may not be a producer of LNG, they certainly will be a major part of the story in converting gas run engines to LNG. The pending Bill will pave the way for new cars to be run on natural gas as well with incentives. It's a no-brainer. This is a speculative stock right now. No one can predict the future. The only way we can prevent the economy from double dip is to avoid $4 gas at the pump, this is the way to do it almost immediately.

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