Comcast Corp (CMCSA)

Terok1313 (99.64) Submitted: 4/28/08 11:02 AM : Start Price: $19.46 CMCSA Score: 11.36

I'm bullish on Comcast for a number of reasons at this price.

First, despite all the fears about competition, Comcast is thus far winning the war for the living room. For every 1 basic cable sub they lose to the telcos, they're gaining 2 telephone subs, give or take. And from what I understand, many of the subs lost over the past couple quarters simply couldn't pay their bills. To combat that, Comcast has started rolling out more competitive options beyond the simple "triple-play." They now allow customers to buy "double-play" packages and have started rolling out low-cost options as well, which will make it easier to hold onto the customers who simply can't afford the higher-end bundles.

Second, the push into the business class service space has just started and has a lot of growth potential ahead. This opens up a second front in the war against the telcos, and it's one in which Comcast really can't lose. Unlike the residential space, there are no customers here for the telcos to steal in return.

Third, Comcast seems to be addressing shareholder concerns, which could very well have a more immediate impact on the stock price. While the recently added dividend payout is pretty small, it opens the stock up to investors who might not have considered it previously. Comcast has also become much more cost-conscious in recent months and I expect the 1st quarter report to show a substantial reduction in capex.

And finally, the digital transition of over-the-air analog signals can reasonably be expected to push customers Comcast's way. Many customers will go out and buy the needed converter boxes, or simply upgrade their televisions, but many others will simply convert to cable. Look for a run-up in the stock as the transition nears.

For all those reasons, I'm doubling-down on Comcast and going long on both CMCSA and CMCSK here on CAPS.

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