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The Company is focused on residential and commercial construction and related activities, including mortgage financing. Its subsidiary companies operated in three principal business segments: Home Building, Financial Services and Construction Services.
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TMFEldrehad (99.99) Submitted: 7/24/07 1:08 PM : Start Price: $39.61 CTX Score: -31.86
A contrarian pick, and trying to catch a falling knife to boot, so this pick isn't without a great deal of risk, especially for the short-term.That said, some not to shabby investor once said, "Be greedy when others are fearful". I admit I could be in for quite a bit of short-term pain, but the valuations of homebuilders are starting to look too good to pass up.Time will tell.
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HonestK (95.41) Submitted: 8/03/07 8:18 PM
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Too early says I. I learned my (very expensive) lesson from the Nasdaq crash. High flying stocks can sink all the way down to their book value and often lower. By the way, when looking at book value, back out the meaningless assets like goodwill and other intangibles. In this case, I would also drastically reduce Centex's valuations for land and housing projects line items. Just glancing at CTX's balance sheet, looks like they also hold $1.47B of mortgages. I'd cut that too.Too bad you're not still #1. I was looking forward to passing you up! (Or not. My own NazCrash follies have taught me to be more humble.)
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TMFEldrehad (99.99) Submitted: 8/08/07 4:54 PM
I haven't given up on retaking the #1 spot yet... and besides, you can still look forward to passing me up, as you're going to have to do that on your way to #1 anyway. :-)
jademonki (61.80) Submitted: 8/10/07 2:43 PM
regarding your housing picks... are you using some technical analysis to determine this or just a hunch that we maybe oversold on this sector ? I think short term there will be a decent bounce but long term maybe more pain...I have picked some for caps as well and hoping to get a bounce in the next week or two then dump them.always curious,jademonki -
TMFEldrehad (99.99) Submitted: 8/13/07 7:01 PM
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Am I using some technical analysis? No. Frankly, it's my personal opinion that technical analysis is useless.I think 'hunch' perhaps most accurately describes my choice of timing here - and again, I'm quite open to the possibility that my timing here might not only be off, but might be *way* off - time will tell.
dwot (100.00) Submitted: 8/26/07 11:19 AM
I don't have a clue as to how technical analysis works, but I think so many people using it makes it dangerous. I constantly see people saying oversold because of technical analysis when fundamental reasons scream you aren't running fast enough.I think this whole home building thing will be an interesting learning experience. Personally, I think several home building companies will go out of business.I think there is going to be an active sell off of real estate which will push the price down. It will come from people who are over extended, people who are down sizing as this massive baby boom works to extract capital for living expenses, children who inherit from their parents and want the capital to reduce their own debt, people who are looking for cheaper places to live to extend the value of fixed incomes.
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