Curtiss-Wright Corp. (NYSE:CW)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company manages and evaluates its operations based on the products and services it offers and the different markets it serves.


Player Avatar mistercube (98.24) Submitted: 11/3/2009 4:36:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $32.11 CW Score: -27.70

My yearlong upthumb has been a big loser, with the stock actually slipping while the S&P took off again. Things got even "worse" in Q3, with lowered guidance and vastly decreased revenues leading many investors to jump ship.

So why do I think this company is as good a buy as ever? Almost all of the bad news at CW came out of the Metal Treatment and energy segments, most tied to commercial clients and the overall economy, which has been, surprise, feeble in 2009.

In an environment of government-instigated liquidity, it's the phrases such as "strong increase in sales to our defense markets of $21 million, or 13%, driven by solid growth in both our naval and aerospace defense programs" coupled with "strong growth in our commercial nuclear power market" which make me optimistic. This isn't pie-in-the-sky "wave of the future" stuff; it's political reality. If the loosest spender in town (Uncle Sam) is either buying your products or ordering other people to, you're in a pretty privileged position. And now the stock just got cheaper!

Furthermore, the nine-month numbers aren't nearly as bad, relatively, and it's not like earnings have EVAPORATED. Q3 might be the second-worst of this recession for reports, as investors struggle intellectually to reconcile the recession's theoretical end with ugly year-over-years (remember, '08 Q3 numbers reflect spending which occurred before the serious brake-slamming at the end of '08). I predict the exact opposite in January, with the beginning of 2010 to look downright stunning aside its plain sister, this homely earnings season. A flattening or even an uptick in the beaten-down segments of CW, coupled with accelerated organic growth in the above-mentioned areas, and CW will be on its way back to cruising altitude faster than a taxpayer-funded fighter jet.

I can understanding hating to have bought it in April, but now's not the time to bail.

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