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The Company operates in 4 segments: agricultural equipment segment, commercial and consumer equipment segment, construction and forestry segment, and credit segment.
My going macro thesis is that "soft landing" includes both the word "soft" and the word "landing". Since machinery has been run up nicely as the first word in the phrase has started sinking into the market's consciousness, I decided to fade a couple names. If there is a risk at current prices, it is of more landing than expected. Reversal plays are always dicey, but I shall want to ride these ideas until I start seeing a renewed upswing in the data (and no, flat nonfarm payroll per population is not a "renewed upswing").
Can this really be the best "bear" pitch - now over three years old?
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