$27.18
-0.68 (-2.44%)
Dendreon Corp (DNDN)
CAPS Rating:
A biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics that harness the immune system to fight cancer.
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Bet the wrong way on this one. Here's a good lesson for all of you...when it comes to small drug companies, most will fail because the drugs they are developing fail and they run out of money. However, those that actually survive long enough to bring a new drug to market have HUGE upside potential. I'm going to leave this pick open forever as a good reminder to me not to mess around with these things!
Agreed.
You still may get that major drop soon. April 30-May 6, 2007 revisited? Gonna be a lot of greedy hogs saying "shoulda, woulda, coulda" lol. Going short as of June 16th, '09
I wouldn't dare short this stock. Way too much positive news and more to come. This company is going places. e.g. FDA approval for Provenge by early next year is a near certainty given the recently released positive IMPACT results, ROW partner in the works, more cancer drugs in the pipeline using similar promising technology... This time next year this stock will be over $50. IMO that's a conservative estimate.
Guess your score shows it all ... -252.56 ... hmmm ... I am willing to bet (and I have being seriously long) that this stock will be $50 per share by the end of the year
It's not IF it will go up, it's when. And when it goes, it's going hard. There is always the chance that the FDA will not approve, but the smart money is that it will be approved. Nobody who has done even a cursory review of Provenge would lump it in the category of other failed drug candidates.
Good luck if you short this, you'll likely need it.
Dendreon already has a market cap of $3.3 billion (based on a share price of $28). At $50, the market cap would reach $5.7 billion.
I've heard the potential market for this drug is $500 million to $1 billion a year. That means Price/Sales is already at 3.3 times this imaginary revenue. Pfizer is currently at 2.7. Amgen is at 4.2.
This drug is unapproved and has virtually no sales, and the market has already assigned a valuation somewhere between Pfizer's and Amgen's? Also, this drug doesn't "cure" people of cancer. It is for a terminal type of cancer. Patients live longer, but will still die. I've read 25.9 months compared to 21.4 months for placebo (2005 study). The technology is interesting, but the results are hardly a miracle. From a business standpoint, your customers keep dying. From a medical standpoint, it would be much better to detect the cancer before it became metastatic and killed the patient.
It sounds like some of you have been following this company for some time. Let us assume FDA approval of the drug. Could you please explain why you believe the stock should be worth $50?
Regarding patiients living longer but still dying, it's because it was a double blind study on approximately 2500 men with late state prostate cancer, i.e. level four, who would ultimately die anyway. The only other treatment was with use of radiation and chemo, and that way cost $50,000 to $80,000 and it extended their lives 2.4 months. Dendreon use of Provenge to treat teh blood extended the lives of these terminally ill patients 4.1 months. Because of the scope of the trial, there is typically no testing on people with a mild form of Prostate Cancer. Waiting for them to die of old age could take 30 years or more, just to pick a number. So that is why these peopel have been dying. GOt it? Good. This is a way of treating CAncer by treating the blood and injecting it into the body as a vaccine, and letting the body's immune system attack the Cancer cells. What an amazing way to attack this insidious disease. Greg M.
I don't have any personal problem with the company I'm simply looking at there balance sheet. They don't have one single thing showing positive. This is a classic pump and dump. If you look at the 40 MA you'll see there making a dwn ward turn...I suggest your sell and get out of this one..!!
Classic pump and dump??? First cancer vaccine past phase 3. FDA approval likely. Blockbuster status of Provenge a reasonable possibility. Went from $3 in early '09 to $20. Now pushing $30. Institutional buying. New manufacturing plants in process. Worldwide marketing potential almost certain.
If this is someone's idea of "a pump and dump" then please let me know of some others.
You either are willing to play the risk of small pharmas and biotechs, or you go elsewhere and find something with strong fundamentals. You either like finding the likes of of DNDN, HGSI, JAZZ, PARD, VVUS, etc...in their infancy, or you buy Merk, etc. It's that simple.
IF cancer treatment vaccines are the future...or one part of it....then you like Dendreon. It you think all that is bogus, then you don't. Because to date, Dendreon is the closest to getting it right, and they are very, very close.