Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 12/21/2011 11:58:27 AM : Underperform Start Price: $32.80 DVAX Score: +38.02

I recently did well on a green thumb on Dynavax, with the justification I provided here:

I think the momentum has run out for Dynavax, and there's a good chance the share price will drop substantially between now and when any regulatory decisions are made regarding Heplisav.

1. The Heplisav ship has been listing heavily ever since the FDA shot down the vaccine for general use, supposedly due to a single instance of autoimmune disease in a recipient. Merck dumped the partnership. The company is now seeking approval of Heplisav in a relatively small subset of the general population (over 40 and chronic kidney disease).

2. There were three serious autoimmune events reported in the follow-up phase III trial.

3. The Heplisav BLA submission was postponed from Q4 2011 to Q1 2012 without much explanation.

4. The company has taken advantage of the stock run-up by raising money heavily through dilutive financing. Prudent, yes. Optimistic, no. The cash cushion may make Dynavax another green thumb stock if the share price gets beaten up badly on Heplisav rejection or sell-off after approval.

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