A biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel biotherapeutics for unmet medical needs, with an emphasis on oncology and inflammatory indications.
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Accuracy is a harsh mistress. I feel like I've had a good handle on Dyax the last few years, but on reviewing my total score for the stock it comes out close to zero. That's the result of not wanting to close my sole losing pick for years on the off chance that it would turn around and bring my pick into the green. Many other players with high accuracy continue to maintain badly losing picks, giving the impression they are still defending positions that they would have given up much earlier if not for the meaningless parameter of accuracy.
In reality, there's likely a formula for judging when a score has gone south enough that it's better to take the accuracy hit and close. Usually I hold too long, especially since I play the same harem of two hundred stocks. I'm trying to dump my losers earlier but it's a hard thing to do, especially with the red thumbs that could give me back 500 points overnight with a failed trial or adverse side effect.
All that aside, I've continued to follow Dyax and I'm in the process of working my score and overall accuracy back into the winning column. I recently rode Dyax up from the trough of 1.12 in August, and now I'm seeing a 20% jump in the last week that I can't justify. Is this a true breakout? Don't ask me, I can't tell the difference. The best I can do is see that price momentum and volume seem to be slowing back down after a spike which means there's a good chance that the upward move won't be maintained.
Dyax continues to book rather weak Kalbitor revenues and burn cash. They have predicted cash flow neutrality in 2013 but I'm skeptical. Meanwhile, the approval of Shire's competing anti-HAE drug Firazyr and the withdrawal of the MAA for Kalbitor have cast further shadows on long-term growth prospects. The company has gone deeper into debt with a recent 20M financing secured by royalties from the LFRP program. The interest rate is 13% which will drop to 12% in August. Yuck.
LFRP is the wild card here, but the company has projected only 70-85M in total revenues in 2016. I think their projected numbers of 110-125M for Kalbitor in the same year are very optimistic, so I have to assume LFRP gets the same treatment. Overall, I see Dyax as in for a very long struggle unless some larger company with a big appetite thinks the potential is bigger than the debt.