Epirus Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:EPRS)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company pioneering the new field of synergistic combination pharmaceuticals, with a portfolio of product candidates in phase 2 clinical development.

Recs

2
Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.77) Submitted: 7/5/2011 1:08:04 PM : Underperform Start Price: $156.00 EPRS Score: +6.23

Today's outperform rating from Oppenheimer was a gift. I love to see a biotech stock pop after an analyst initiates coverage with a rating diametrically opposed to the stock's true prospects. My negative opinions about CombinatoRx, excuse me, Zalicus, are rooted in the five year chart. Open it up and take a look.

From 2006 to 2008 the share price degraded steadily as little came of multiple combination drugs in clinical development. The idea of combining generics into new therapeutic compounds initially seemed novel, but the market was clearly growing fatigued with lackluster results from midstage trials.

In 9/08 the share price dropped off a cliff with the failure of the company's most highly touted drug, Synavive, to achieve statistical significance in the COMET-1 trial in knee osteoarthritis. That plunge represented the last of the smart money leaving the stock, never to return.

In 2009 the company mortgaged their future by diluting massively to buy Neuromed, the private developer of an extended-release opiate called Exalgo. Since that time the share price has ballooned from 30M to 90M. Exalgo was approved by the FDA a year ago but like most other analgesics approved in recent years has failed to make any significant commercial impact.

A few months ago a cadre of like-minded pumpers began flogging Zalicus on Seeking Alpha. Working together or not, their talking points were similar. Their number one argument for Zalicus success? Synavive, of course. The compound whose failure tanked the stock in 2008. The company has just initiated a phase IIb trial in rheumatoid arthritis, and the prior failure in osteoarthritis has been blurred over to look like a success. And another thing the company and the pumpers aren't mentioning is that there was already a phase IIb trial of Synavive in rheumatoid arthritis, MARS-1, run synchronistically with COMET-1. What happened to MARS-1? The company killed the trial late in enrollment and swept it under the rug.

What do the pumpers think is the next best thing about Zalicus? Exalgo, of course. One pumper even claimed that the royalty stream from Exalgo is worth more than the current market cap of the company. But what royalty revenues have been booked from three full quarters of Exalgo sales so far? 1.1M, then 0.1M, then 0.35M. Doesn't look like this is going to be going anywhere.

In true pumper style, every drug and technology platform Zalicus has ever floated is then paraded out as the next great medical breakthrough. But in five years Zalicus has never completed development of any drug or even initiated a phase III trial.

I'm no good at calling tops. But I do call BS when I see it and this pile is getting mighty fragrant.

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Member Avatar charlie0217 (< 20) Submitted: 7/8/2011 11:46:52 AM
Recs: 0

How many times are you going to change the timestamp on this post??? You wrote this like a year ago. This is the third time I have seen you change the date and drop off the replies to make it look like a new post. The only thing different this time is you udated the Exalgo Royalties.

You also keep changing your start price. You red thumbed it around 2. then again at 2.4 and now 2.6. Instead of changing your start price up and up and up with a red thumb, why don't you just change the thumb to a green as the stock obviously keeps going up over time.

And besides, your analysis is so outdated, its almost laughable. Comparing Zalicus now to Zalicus 5 years ago is like comparing chicken salad to chicken sh!t.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.77) Submitted: 7/9/2011 1:24:54 AM
Recs: 3

Your comment serves no rational purpose, except to soothe your own insecurities. I do not set the price of Zalicus stock, nor do I influence it. Regardless of what happens to Zalicus, I will be here to own up to it this year, and next year, and the next. Meanwhile you will have moved on to other websites and message boards, pumping other stocks as charlie0216 or charlie0218.

Member Avatar goldminingXpert (29.40) Submitted: 7/14/2011 9:12:52 AM
Recs: 0

"Meanwhile you will have moved on to other websites and message boards, pumping other stocks as charlie0216 or charlie0218"

I absolutely love that comment! I can't wait until this stock collapses and the Stocklasar guy at SA finally quits pumping it every five minutes.

Member Avatar goldminingXpert (29.40) Submitted: 7/14/2011 9:13:24 AM
Recs: 0

"Meanwhile you will have moved on to other websites and message boards, pumping other stocks as charlie0216 or charlie0218"

I absolutely love that comment! I can't wait until this stock collapses and the Stocklasar guy at SA finally quits pumping it every five minutes.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.77) Submitted: 7/14/2011 9:56:24 AM
Recs: 0

There seems to be a rule that if your nickname is Stock(x) then x must be misspelled - ergo Stocklasar, Stockmillionare etc. I'm going to register Stockgenious, Stockwizzard, and Stockgooru before someone else nabs them.

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