+ Watch EXEL
on My Watchlist
A development-stage biotechnology company dedicated to the discovery and development of novel small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases.
Diluting shareholders today. Open buy order in RL@3.72
Large position in RL; average price 4.50. I expect swift approval of cabo by FDA.
Cabo is approved. Now I've got a huge EXEL position in RL (and I even added in the 4.99--5.13 range after approval!). I will wait it out until 2015. The news are great. The price of cabo is set at 9900 USD/month at 140mg (80mg + 3*20mg per day). This corresponds to 2828 USD/month for the 40mg formulation for prostrate cancer. The looming huge dilution due to outstanding warrants and the black box label in the current formulation will scare off some retail investors, so I don't expect dramatic changes in price soon. I might increase my stake further in the near future and lend my shares for shorting.
correction to note of 11/30/2012:: prostate trial COMET-1 is using 60mg not 40mg dosing; using the current pricing of cabo for MTC, this dose corresponds to a price of 4243 USD/month.
Additional correction now that I've read the complete transcript of the post-approval presentation: flat pricing implies the price of the 60mg is identical to that of the 140mg, so Exelixis is going to get 9900 USD/month for any use of the drug for any indication in any dose. The expectation is that most prescriptions will be at the 60mg/day to reduce serious side effects.
Closed it all. I'll try to re enter within the year, perhaps with long-term options only.
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