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$5.32 0.62 (13.19%)
7/8/2008 4:00 PM

Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL)

CAPS Rating:
****

A development-stage biotechnology company dedicated to the discovery and development of novel small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases.

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14

Avatar HologramMan (86.60) Submitted: 3/15/07 9:46 PM : Underperform Start Price: $9.54 EXEL Score: 35.54

This company is touted to be the next Genentech but I'm not buying it. Exel has a lot of eggs and no chickens. If one of these eggs hatches, then it's great for everyone, but at this early in the game it's really impossible for anyone to know what's going on.





They have strategic partnerships and some interesting drugs in the pipeline but that's it. Any of them could fail. All of them could fail and that's what worries me.





A lot of people are under the belief that just because they have 6 or 7 drugs in the pipeline, that one has to make it. Nothing could be further from the truth. These could all fail - every single one. There is good chance of that.





I'm waiting for some hard clinical trial results before I move forward and buy this one. I'm sorry but everyone who is picking this stock to outperform is just speculating at this point.





To give you an analogy, imagine I hire 7 motorcyclists to jump the Grand Canyon. What are the chances that one of the seven will make it? Very slim on all counts.





Everyone is dreaming of the next Genentech but the truth is, this is just a pipe dream, or rather, a pipeline dream.


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Avatar majakblue (70.13) Submitted: 5/05/07 12:26 AM

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I agree with this assessment. I don't get what is going on. All of the biotechs are touting drug candidates, but it doesn't mean diddly squat until they are in late stage phase III without their patients dropping dead of liver and/or kidney failure, congestive heart failure or other nasties. It looks like their best eggs are owned by Genentech anyway. So why is this stock on the rise?

I gave a thumbs up to Alphacell which is not doing well, and it has an actual product in very late stage phase III and is undergoing additional trials for multiple applications. I understand and like the biochemistry, very innovative biosystematics, so the science looks good. So why don't the investors like Alphacell and they do like Exelixis? I am a newbie at investing and any assistance with the analysis would be greatly appreciated. BTW, I don't own either stock. As an experienced geneticist, I don't put my money in drug discovery firms. Too many opportunities to go splat. The lottery is a better bet.

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Avatar Bramps (< 20) Submitted: 8/30/07 10:40 AM

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No disrespect meant, however, your analogy means your deaf, dumb and blind. We're playing a game of odds and numbers. It's obvious that given all we know today it would be impossible (maybe) to jump the Grand Canyon so we wouldn't bet on it in the first place. Being in the message board of this stock means your gambling. Not ever a sure thing. Your saying you'll place your bet on the crap table after the dice is rolled. Like Bill Russell would say, "TOO LATE WILT".
Maybe you should change your interest to the large cap bios.

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