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Recs
I bought EXPD at $34.42 on 10/12/12
Consider Buy below 36.60
Consider Sell above 68.00
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SUMMARY
Current Price 34.78
My Fair Value 52.28
Req'd Margin of Safety 30%
MOS Low 36.60
MOS High 67.96
Residual Income/Sh 1.73
ASSUMPTIONS
Forecast ROE 18.1%
Hurdle Rate 10.0%
Years 1-5 growth % 8.2|7.6|7.0|6.6|6.2
Years 6-10 CAGR 5.0%
Years 11-15 CAGR 4.0%
Terminal CAGR 3.0%
EXPECTED 5-YEAR ROI
Dividend Yield 1.5%
Forecast RI CAGR 7.1%
Change in Multiple 8.5%
Forecast ROI 17.1%
Required ROI 15.0%
SUMMARY RATINGS
Economic Moat Wide
Fund'l GPA 3.6|4.0
Price to Fair Value 66.5%
Technical Indicators Oversold
Indicated Action CONSIDER BUY
EXPD's Q4 reported gross rev up 2%, net rev down 4% (industry freight yields declined compressing gross margins), mkt share growing, operating margins contracted more than expected due to higher IT and office investment. As a result, reduced FV to 47.6 from 52.3. MOS remains 30%. Consider buy below 33.3.