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The Company is engaged in the business of providing global logistics services. It offers its customers a seamless international network supporting the movement and strategic positioning of goods.
I bought EXPD at $34.42 on 10/12/12Consider Buy below 36.60Consider Sell above 68.00____________________________SUMMARYCurrent Price 34.78My Fair Value 52.28Req'd Margin of Safety 30%MOS Low 36.60MOS High 67.96Residual Income/Sh 1.73ASSUMPTIONS Forecast ROE 18.1%Hurdle Rate 10.0%Years 1-5 growth % 8.2|7.6|7.0|6.6|6.2Years 6-10 CAGR 5.0%Years 11-15 CAGR 4.0%Terminal CAGR 3.0%EXPECTED 5-YEAR ROI Dividend Yield 1.5%Forecast RI CAGR 7.1%Change in Multiple 8.5%Forecast ROI 17.1%Required ROI 15.0%SUMMARY RATINGS Economic Moat WideFund'l GPA 3.6|4.0Price to Fair Value 66.5%Technical Indicators OversoldIndicated Action CONSIDER BUY
EXPD's Q4 reported gross rev up 2%, net rev down 4% (industry freight yields declined compressing gross margins), mkt share growing, operating margins contracted more than expected due to higher IT and office investment. As a result, reduced FV to 47.6 from 52.3. MOS remains 30%. Consider buy below 33.3.
Update - Price/FV 0.87Fair value 44.8Normalized eps 1.67Sales growth 14.2%Op Margin expands to 9.5% from 9.1%Competitive advantage period 10 years (wide moat)Discount rate 9.5%Market P/FV is 1.01EXPD to outperform marketInvestment period 5 yrs
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