Recs

1
Player Avatar CmpsVktr (< 20) Submitted: 10/13/2012 6:13:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $33.92 EXPD Score: -17.12

I bought EXPD at $34.42 on 10/12/12
Consider Buy below 36.60
Consider Sell above 68.00
____________________________
SUMMARY
Current Price   34.78
My Fair Value   52.28
Req'd Margin of Safety   30%
MOS Low   36.60
MOS High   67.96
Residual Income/Sh   1.73
ASSUMPTIONS   
Forecast ROE   18.1%
Hurdle Rate   10.0%
Years 1-5 growth %   8.2|7.6|7.0|6.6|6.2
Years 6-10 CAGR   5.0%
Years 11-15 CAGR   4.0%
Terminal CAGR   3.0%
EXPECTED 5-YEAR ROI   
Dividend Yield   1.5%
Forecast RI CAGR   7.1%
Change in Multiple   8.5%
Forecast ROI   17.1%
Required ROI   15.0%
SUMMARY RATINGS   
Economic Moat   Wide
Fund'l GPA    3.6|4.0
Price to Fair Value   66.5%
Technical Indicators   Oversold
Indicated Action   CONSIDER BUY

Report this Post 2 Replies
Member Avatar CmpsVktr (< 20) Submitted: 2/28/2013 3:03:39 PM
Recs: 0

EXPD's Q4 reported gross rev up 2%, net rev down 4% (industry freight yields declined compressing gross margins), mkt share growing, operating margins contracted more than expected due to higher IT and office investment. As a result, reduced FV to 47.6 from 52.3. MOS remains 30%. Consider buy below 33.3.

Member Avatar CmpsVktr (< 20) Submitted: 2/25/2014 9:09:03 PM
Recs: 0

Update - Price/FV 0.87
Fair value 44.8
Normalized eps 1.67
Sales growth 14.2%
Op Margin expands to 9.5% from 9.1%
Competitive advantage period 10 years (wide moat)
Discount rate 9.5%
Market P/FV is 1.01
EXPD to outperform market
Investment period 5 yrs

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