Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5

From its assembly lines in the early 1900s to the Mustang and the F-Series trucks, Ford is an American car-making icon.

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Player Avatar TMFBlacknGold (99.02) Submitted: 12/21/2012 9:33:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.65 F Score: +50.44

I really nailed (aka luck) the bottom on this pick. If only I had made an investment in Ford when I made the pick...sigh.

Ford is uniquely positioned to lead the pack in the new CAFE standards for vehicles with its Eco-boost engines and its recent deployment of the CMAX line (including an electric CMAX Energi). The CMAX models could really steal some of the Prius' spotlight quite easily. In fact, I think it is entirely possible for the Energi to win the Car of the Year Award for 2013, making it two years in a row for an electric vehicle (Tesla in 2012).

There is still a long way to go between 40 mpg and 54.5 mpg (the current final target), but new advances in materials and body design should shed weight over the next several years. In fact, Ford - like other car companies - is heavily invested in carbon fiber car parts, which could drop over 700 lbs from the weight of a vehicle and dramatically increase fuel economy.

See my write-up on the new CAFE standards relating to car companies:
http://beta.fool.com/blackngold/2012/11/06/only-cafe-makes-you-lose-weight/15844/

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Member Avatar Jefffirzlaff (< 20) Submitted: 12/24/2012 8:50:32 PM
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So you think in the next several years a substantial amount of car parts are going to be replaced by carbon fiber? You must not work in the auto industry. 700 lbs is a whole bunch of weight and it won't be coming from carbon fiber parts. In a Tesla or Ferrari maybe, but not in a Ford, GM or other mass produced vehicle. It has to be cost effective. Maybe more Magnesium and Aluminum alloys for body parts. These companies can't increase the cost of their cars anymore. They are already giving back $7K on full size trucks this x-mas. Anyhow, the bottom was at $1.50, not $9.00. If only you would have invested then.

Member Avatar DrGoldin (99.60) Submitted: 12/25/2012 7:41:57 PM
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@Jefffirzlaff: When you're talking about a stock like Ford, there are MULTIPLE bottoms.

Member Avatar TMFBlacknGold (99.02) Submitted: 12/31/2012 6:25:46 PM
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If you read my post you'll see that the major American car companies are pouring big R&D money into scaling up the production of carbon fiber, which would reduce costs and make it feasible for widespread use. I understand that most of the weight reduction is not coming from carbon fiber at the moment (less welds, aluminum parts, etc), but that is also in my post.

Also, I meant the bottom as in the most recent bottom in 2012.

Thanks for your comment.

Member Avatar Seafairer (45.71) Submitted: 1/8/2013 2:34:14 PM
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I have a starting price of $3.66 and it kills me to think of the profit I have lost!

Member Avatar Pdest (< 20) Submitted: 1/21/2013 7:10:51 PM
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What are your thoughts on the future stock value of Ford as they approach their quarterly earnings report the end of January? They rose sharply the last couple months but leveled of lately. Based on a great low P/E ratio, great sales, and good profit margins, Ford is positioned to pop in the next two weeks.

Member Avatar TMFBlacknGold (99.02) Submitted: 1/25/2013 6:57:34 AM
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@Pdest

I don't know much about autos, but judging from past announcements I think investors will be happy with any uptick in European sales and continued progress on debt payments.

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