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$1.97 -0.26 (-11.66%)
10/6/2008 4:13 PM

The First Marblehead Corp (FMD)

CAPS Rating:
****

The Company with its subsidiaries offers national, regional financial, educational institutions, as well as businesses, education loan marketers & other organizations, a suite of outsourcing services for private education lending in the U.S.

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Recs

9

Avatar Terok1313 (32.04) Submitted: 4/23/08 4:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.74 FMD Score: -35.79

I've lost a lot of points, and a little bit of accuracy, on this dog as I've repeatedly tried to catch a bottom, only for some new disaster to strike (TERI, BofA, etc...) each and every time. But I simply don't believe that they're going bankrupt. They're a well-run company caught up in a tsunami not of they're own making. There's no way the government will let the post-secondary education system flounder. Loans will be granted and people will go to school come fall. Whether or not FMD will be part of the solution remains to be seen, but I'm betting that they will.

I've also been making a number of poker comparisons lately, and I just really like the pot-odds on this one. I think the potential upside far outweighs the downside risk.

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