Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOLD)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, which focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel small molecule, orally-administered drugs, known as pharmacological chaperones, for the treatment of a range of human genetic diseases.

Recs

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Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.73) Submitted: 12/21/2010 11:34:21 AM : Underperform Start Price: $4.37 FOLD Score: +5.36

A lot has changed about Amicus since I first recommended grabbing their bottom at 3.87 last January. That recommendation turned out to be a lemon, as the stock ended up bottoming under 2 in July. Since then, however, the share price has more than doubled. In true baby bio fashion these cataclysmic drops and spikes have occurred in a complete vacuum of objective catalysts until Amigal was partnered to GSK two weeks ago. However, as of the last PR the cash position is 58M and the market cap is now 123M, a far cry from the equality of cash and market cap seen in January. Even after factoring in the 30M upfront payment from GSK, Amicus no longer seems like a good investment from a cash perspective. The burn remains high at 13-15M so that 30M is only good for another two quarters. After multiple pipeline failures, Amigal stands alone in clinical trials with one phase III study in progress (Study 011). Baby biotech is inherently irrational, so there's no reason that Amicus couldn't keep shooting up indefinitely prior to the data release from Study 011 in Q2 2011. But I'm the score leader on this stock with eight positive scores, seven of which were red thumbs. I guess we'll find out if I really have a grip on this company or my success was due to pure stochastic variability.

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