Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOLD)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, which focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel small molecule, orally-administered drugs, known as pharmacological chaperones, for the treatment of a range of human genetic diseases.

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Player Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 12/2/2012 8:44:36 PM : Underperform Start Price: $5.76 FOLD Score: +8.45

Amicus is showing another upward kick in advance of data from Study 011 of Amigal in Fabry's disease, with topline results likely to be released this month. Similar upward movements earlier this year have not been sustained. I've been dubious about Amicus since 2007, when the share price declined precipitously despite the company's claims of positive results from the phase II trial of Amigal. I've never seen a complete data set from that trial, and it's difficult to understand the company's sparse press releases from that study and the subsequent extension study. A second major failure with Gaucher's disease drug Plicera didn't do much to boost my long-term faith in the company. Amicus might well report positive results from Study 011, but I don't think that will guarantee any kind of sustained positive response in the stock.

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Member Avatar Momentum21 (82.23) Submitted: 12/2/2012 10:39:44 PM
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I own a bunch of these shares now and can't really argue with your red thumb. The number of folks pumping this ticker is starting to become a cause for concern. Probably because I am starting to find similarities with the recent EXEL trade. : )

Member Avatar jcov1337 (85.06) Submitted: 12/3/2012 1:26:45 PM
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Look at the market cap of EXEL and look at the market cap of FOLD. If the data is positive, the commercialization of Amigal alone should prop it up over 400. I just do not think that it is likely, if positive data is reported, that the stock is sold off similar to EXEL. I think you see a decent move into the 7-8 range where it will most likely stay. The company will also be releasing data concerning it's AT-2220 program, which, if also positive, should add further value. The company has been mum on the current trial of Amigal because the data is blinded in order to not affect the outcome of the 6 month extension study until that is fully completed (in December). The study has had high continuation rates and a very low dropout rate (6%). The data that has been shown concerning the Phase II trial has all been very positive, and they have been very open about the study's enrollment and results (the recent extension data looked very solid). It looks as though you are basing your reasoning off of stock performance in the past. I think this will prove to be faulty inductive reasoning. The stock shouldn't trade any higher than its current range because positive data is not a certainty. I think, however, it is likely. Therefore, when the data is unblinded, the veil will be lifted and attract more buyers and a high pps.

Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 12/3/2012 7:02:37 PM
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I don't see any correlation between Amicus and Exelixis. Sell on the news is a common phenomenon. In cancer stocks it tends to occur more because it is often a long and expensive path before commercial viability can be demonstrated. In the case of Amicus, it would be because there's already an established treatment for Fabry's disease and positive results from Study 011 are unlikely to provide any conclusive rationale for a treatment switch. Run-up uncertainty = run-down.

Member Avatar jcov1337 (85.06) Submitted: 12/4/2012 9:31:22 AM
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What?! The current treatment is Enzyme Replacement Therapy. Which, if you didn't know, is an IV infusion that is required twice a month for 4-5 hours at a time. Amigal is a pill. It is taken daily (placebo every other day, amigal every other day). So, you're telling me that if the data is good for Amigal, it doesn't matter because people will not want to switch from taking an IV infusion for 8-10 hours a month (with the drawbacks of a safety profile that sees 50-55% of patients develop infusion reactions) to a PILL that has been shown to have NO serious side effects. Are you kidding me? Have you even researched Fabry disease and the treatment options?

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