Force Protection, Inc. (FRPT)

mrktwatcher (< 20) Submitted: 12/13/07 1:49 PM

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From USATODAY;

"The Marines' decision to cut orders amounts to about a 9% overall reduction in the number of MRAPs the Pentagon plans to purchase.

The Army, which accounts for the vast majority of those vehicles, has shown no signs of cutting its own requirements for the vehicles."

Only a 9% reduction in orders by the USMC, none by the Army? Why all the hubub,...bub???

I think once this reduction in orders news blows over, Force Protection is going to remain on solid ground. I have seen 1 year projections from $5/shr up to $12. So obviously there is debate as to what is really accurate. Alot of these projections by so called "experts" is nonsense as most of these people dont know what they are talking about. FRPT has tons of capital over 3000 firm orders yet to be filled and virtually no competetion. They will come back, my projection; over $10/shr by summer '08.

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DemonDoug (99.68) Submitted: 12/14/07 12:11 PM

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Gentlemen, I think a large part of the problem is the management. This company has a great product, one of the greatest military innovations in the past 50 years. However, it is difficult to invest in a long position when there are notable accounting issues, and the rumor mill has it that the CEO is difficult to work with. Add to that declining sales orders - what's the hubbub? Well, what if 9% sales reduction is just a start? Also, the analyst downgrades mention that other players in the industry are starting to ramp up production, companies with stronger leadership (BAE and General Dynamics).
I'm not saying that FRPT is a bad investment. For a second I almost gave it the green thumb. Right now the business is just too volatile to make an informed decision. Remember a stock price isn't based solely on your past 12 months of sales - it's where your sales will be 1, 3, and 5 years from now. Right now the forecast is pretty stormy. And what happens if we get a president in 08 who pulls all the troops out of iraq? The MRAP program will slow to a trickle. And then FRPT will be S.O.L. unless they are bought out (which doesn't seem likely at this point). The bullish case is a very strong one, and I'm apt to believe it, but I see the other side of the table, it just looks way too risky for my taste.

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mrktwatcher (< 20) Submitted: 12/14/07 1:31 PM

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YOU ARE MAKING SOME VERY GOOD POINTS. THE STOCK MARKET IN GENERAL IS A CRAP SHOOT AND THE MRAP MARKET IS AN EMERGING MARKET THAT IS GOING TO BE STORMY FOR A WHILE. FRPT HAS BASICALLY STARTED THE INDUSTRY, AND IF THE PENTAGON IS NOTHING THEY ARE LOYAL. FRPT HAS SAVED THE LIVES OF THOUSANDS OF US SERVICE MEN. THE MILITARY DOES NOT FORGET THAT KIND OF COMMITMENT. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THESE STATEMENTS MADE BY FORCE PROTECTIONS CEO RELEASED TODAY. ENJOY;

FINANCES
The Company's current cash position is strong with over $60 million in liquid assets, virtually no debt, and a significant capacity to access debt capital as necessary.

FILLING REQUIREMENTS
Let me also re-emphasize our commitment to urgent operational need requirements as issued by major ground commanders in Iraq/Afghanistan and contracted by the MRAP joint program office. Not only is this the most important program in the United States Department of Defense, it is a program that our vehicles helped create.

Some have also said that Force Protection is too dependent on one customer, but let's take a closer look at that "one customer." Within the DoD, we are servicing all of the individual services with MRAPs and the joint EOD Rapid Response vehicle; the Army Corps of Engineers is the principal consumer of Buffalo MPCVs, but the Marine Corps now owns several dozen as well.

No other company offers the range of choices in weight class, configurations, or mission-specific attributes to the multiple customers purchasing MRAP-type vehicles.

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mrktwatcher (< 20) Submitted: 12/19/07 3:27 PM

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Force Protection has taken a beating the last few weeks, but i still believe in this stock. They have 500 firm orders going into 2008, which represents about 70% of their projected work load. It is estimated that their Cheetah may get 600 orders and could possibly be chosen for the next HUMVEE replacement. It is estimated that the US military will need approximately 100,000 heavily armored HUMVEE replacement vehicles within the next 10 years and may break up the order for these vehicles like it has with the MRAP's with 3 or 4 subcontractors including FRPT to expedite the deliveries, FRPT will definitely see a large share of this order. FRPT has just opened a large manufacturing facility and has proven that they can deliver the product fast and reliabily, and their MRAP's are field tested and they work.

The company has $70mil in the bank and less than $1mil in debt.

The future of this company really depends on weather they can open up new markets with foreign governments, if the US military purchases a good quantity of their new Cheetah, and weather they can branch off into other profitable endevours related to armour, training and kinetic blast protection technology with their research center. They are not going away, but will the stock see $30/shr again,...probably not.

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